Yup. This is a catastrophically bad idea. You cannot sanction Russia and China to make them bend the knee, and trying to do so is having the opposite of the intended effect. This is not Iraq or Yugoslavia where you can beat them into submission easily.
U.S. Is Preparing To Sanction Chinese Banks Supporting Russia, Report Says
U.S. officials have expressed concerns that trade between China and Russia has allowed Moscow to rebuild its military-industrial capacity as it fights an attritional war in Ukraine.www.forbes.com
The ultimate desperation move by Biden if he does so. That’s what happens though when your losing a war your unwilling to fight yourself.
If Russia invades Ukraine pt 2
- Thread starter Indiandad
- Start date
Omega
Well-known member
Will U.S. aid arrive in time for Ukraine's fight to hold off Russia's army?
For many in Ukraine, the news of the aid package finally passing Congress offered relief and renewed hope of victory. But a long and difficult fight is ahead.
www.nbcnews.com
Well America's Congress has signaled their virtue. However, American weapons did not turn the tide against Russia during Ukraine's summer offensive in 2023. Will they make a difference now?
irish_buffalo
Well-known member
Yes.Will U.S. aid arrive in time for Ukraine's fight to hold off Russia's army?
For many in Ukraine, the news of the aid package finally passing Congress offered relief and renewed hope of victory. But a long and difficult fight is ahead.
Well America's Congress has signaled their virtue. However, American weapons did not turn the tide against Russia during Ukraine's summer offensive in 2023. Will they make a difference now?
Omega
Well-known member
Joe Biden Suggests War Is Peace After Approving Weapons for Ukraine
Joe Biden suggested war is peace on Wednesday after he signed legislation to provide Ukraine the funds to conduct a war against Russia.
www.breitbart.com
And surveillance is liberty, censorship is free speech, and authoritarianism is democracy.
Cubsandtigers
Well-known member
Will U.S. aid arrive in time for Ukraine's fight to hold off Russia's army?
For many in Ukraine, the news of the aid package finally passing Congress offered relief and renewed hope of victory. But a long and difficult fight is ahead.
Well America's Congress has signaled their virtue. However, American weapons did not turn the tide against Russia during Ukraine's summer offensive in 2023. Will they make a difference now?
The new ammo should allow them to stabilize the lines. Beyond that the answer is not really imo.
Ukraine isn’t capable of a successful offensive against prepared Russian defenses. Russia isn’t much better.
irish_buffalo
Well-known member
Putin sends Russia's defense minister a warning shot
Russia's deputy defense minister was arrested in what some call a signal to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
www.newsweek.com
Bribes are second nature in Soviet 2.0. Arrests are not. Interesting move.
Cubsandtigers
Well-known member
Putin sends Russia's defense minister a warning shot
Russia's deputy defense minister was arrested in what some call a signal to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Bribes are second nature in Soviet 2.0. Arrests are not. Interesting move.
I agree with the idea it’s aimed at Shoigu. His demise can probably be expected soon. This may or may not be a benefit for Ukraine. The person who replaces him might be more competent. Although that really wouldn’t be difficult to achieve given Shoigu’s performance.
Omega
Well-known member
?irish_buffalo
Well-known member
It is not sustainable. They have a serious worker shortage and are propped up with military spending. Our sanctions have not really gone after Russian crude as rigorously as we could to stave off major disruptions in the market. And Putin has essentially bought his populous leading up to the election providing higher wages and benefits. Russia's key interest rate is at 16% and they actually risk overheating in the short term.
The Carnegie think tank just came out with a report stating Russia has 18 more mos. before the cards start to fall.
Chinese exports to Russia dropped for the first time last month since the war began (And China has some major problems of their own at the moment).
Omega
Well-known member
We share the same goal of stopping Putin. I just don't share your optimism it can be done without US/NATO boots on the ground.
But we heard all this after the first few months of the war and Russia had failed to deliver a knockout blow to Ukraine. Color me skeptical of continued claims that Putin & Russia are on the ropes. I guess only time will tell but it seems to me that keeping this bloodbath going is increasingly becoming more of a problem for the Ukrainians then Russians.
irish_buffalo
Well-known member
With proper funding and weapons Ukraine can push out the invaders.
There is a reason people like Mike Johnson pushed to pass this week's aid bill. Defeating Russia, or at the very least draining them in Ukraine, is crucial on its face but also serves as a deterrent to the other Axis of Evil countries so our sons will not have to fight another war half way around the globe. It is crucial.
Maybe, maybe not. It doesn't seem like the Ukrainians will ever have the manpower to push the Russians out. At best all they may be able to do is stalemate the Russians at the current front.
While your last point is legit, I'll offer a counter point: As we dangerously exhaust our ammunition supplies in supporting a Russia/Ukraine stalemate, China with a worsening economy and a leadership fearing their own longevity, launches a massive invasion of Taiwan to take advantage. Then our sons and daughters will be in a very serious fight.
And hell if we screw up in Ukraine and a panicked Putin escalates the war ALL of us will be in the fight.
Cubsandtigers
Well-known member
Short of an internal Russian collapse this won’t happen. The Russians are more likely to roll out the nukes than cede Crimea back.
I would argue that our current course is increasing the likelihood of our sons and daughters having to fight. An increasingly frantic escalation by western leaders trying to save face.
Problem is Putin knows the western public isn’t down for a land war. Unless and until he’s made to believe that’s possible it’s all empty to them imo.
Cubsandtigers
Well-known member
I swear you said the demise of the Russian economy would be in eighteen months two years ago.
cabezadecaballo
Well-known member
So if the next guy is almost certain to be more competent and effective, and Ukraine just had a discouraging year opposing the man being replaced, doesn’t that make the next $61B we dump in the Ukraine a foolish investment ?
irish_buffalo
Well-known member
You heard what you wanted to hear. Slow burn.
cabezadecaballo
Well-known member
Sounds kind of familiar… too bad it would be in the “blown up” first thread
cabezadecaballo
Well-known member
Energy economy
OldSoulon
Well-known member
Biden’s been doing a good job for his Ukrainian brothers…give ‘em enough money to keep going in a war they cannot win…stretch it out, make the big bucks, then toss them to the curb.
cabezadecaballo
Well-known member
None of the struggles are likely as bad as you have been led to believe. They were shaking the tree to make $61 billion fall out
irish_buffalo
Well-known member
Maybe. I've mentioned before that unfortunately for Ukraine the real play here is to bleed Russia in Ukraine. Putin has taken great measures on the economy, and Elvira is a whiz, but it is not sustainable.
This is still a tepid response from the West.
No one really wants that, including the citizens of Moscow and St. Petersburg. The Kremlin has relied heavily on throwing their less than desirable citizens and foreigners at Ukraine.
Cubsandtigers
Well-known member
No war economy is sustainable over a long period of time. That they managed to take what amounts of the wests best shot and get up is a testament to just how damn good Elvira and company are.
I disagree to an extent. It’s the most aggressive economic sanctions ever imposed. It could be harsher but doing that would bring blowback into play.
For example if we actually were to sanction Chinese banks. You run the risk of tanking the Chinese economy and infecting the global banking system with contagion. Each would have profoundly negative consequences for America.
Ukraine isn’t in a much better situation. They are seriously considering getting countries to forcibly repatriate fighting age males. I can’t imagine these guys will make great soldiers.
WJ-OSU-STEELERS
Well-known member
Russia's economy is so driven by the war in Ukraine that it cannot afford to either win or lose, economist says
"A protracted stalemate might be the only solution for Russia to avoid total economic collapse," one economist says.
www.businessinsider.com
Cubsandtigers
Well-known member
I
The same economists that predicted that the ruble would be rubble?
As I said to Irish earlier. No country can run a war economy forever and the transition back to a regular economy is frequently painful.
Russia's economy is so driven by the war in Ukraine that it cannot afford to either win or lose, economist says
"A protracted stalemate might be the only solution for Russia to avoid total economic collapse," one economist says.
The same economists that predicted that the ruble would be rubble?
As I said to Irish earlier. No country can run a war economy forever and the transition back to a regular economy is frequently painful.
Omega
Well-known member
The changing nature of war. One thing that war provides is a live laboratory of what works and does not work on the battlefield:
www.yahoo.com
It could be Ukraine and their US military handlers just wanting to preserve scarce resources. Then again drones might be shaping the battlefield in new and different ways that make high tech tanks ineffective.
Ukraine pulls US-provided Abrams tanks from the front lines over Russian drone threats
Ukraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia, in part because Russian drone warfare has made it too difficult for them to operate without detection or coming under attack, two U.S. military officials told The Associated Press. The U.S. agreed...
It could be Ukraine and their US military handlers just wanting to preserve scarce resources. Then again drones might be shaping the battlefield in new and different ways that make high tech tanks ineffective.
Cubsandtigers
Well-known member
The changing nature of war. One thing that war provides is a live laboratory of what works and does not work on the battlefield:
Ukraine pulls US-provided Abrams tanks from the front lines over Russian drone threats
Ukraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia, in part because Russian drone warfare has made it too difficult for them to operate without detection or coming under attack, two U.S. military officials told The Associated Press. The U.S. agreed...
It could be Ukraine and their US military handlers just wanting to preserve scarce resources. Then again drones might be shaping the battlefield in new and different ways that make high tech tanks ineffective.
This is kind of why I said to Irish the other day that Ukraine can’t take its land back. Russia isn’t using meat waves because they prefer it. They are using them because it’s the only way to advance on the battlefield.
WJ-OSU-STEELERS
Well-known member
Nothing really to do regarding the Special Military Operation but an interesting article
www.yahoo.com
Former Russian sex spy says she was trained as a ‘master manipulator’
The podcast "To Die For," was launched by Neil Strauss, author of “The Game" who also wrote “The Dirt" about rock band Mötley Crüe. It's from Tenderfoot TV and iHeartPodcasts.
Cubsandtigers
Well-known member
Seems as if Ukraines own supporters are getting tired of its story making.
Omega
Well-known member
The old quandary of truth being stranger than fiction. Men, super egos, and honey pots. The eternal quest for power.Nothing really to do regarding the Special Military Operation but an interesting article
Former Russian sex spy says she was trained as a ‘master manipulator’
The podcast "To Die For," was launched by Neil Strauss, author of “The Game" who also wrote “The Dirt" about rock band Mötley Crüe. It's from Tenderfoot TV and iHeartPodcasts.