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  #691  
Old 10-28-13, 11:52 AM
Oil Filter Oil Filter is offline
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Originally Posted by GRPride86 View Post
I would think that since the lions share of the ticket price goes to OHSAA for the playoffs, they would move it to a bigger venue.
On the flip side, that extra ticket revenue would have to cover the rent at Infocision. It's not clear that it would (at least not by a large enough margin to justify overriding Ellet's possible objections). Even with unlimited capacity, the game might draw no more than 10,000.

If Massillon should be scheduled to play at Ellet, I wouldn't think that Massillon would make any effort to have the game moved. They would take their half of the tickets and head to Ellet.
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  #692  
Old 10-28-13, 12:52 PM
GRPride86 GRPride86 is offline
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Originally Posted by Oil Filter View Post
On the flip side, that extra ticket revenue would have to cover the rent at Infocision. It's not clear that it would (at least not by a large enough margin to justify overriding Ellet's possible objections). Even with unlimited capacity, the game might draw no more than 10,000.

If Massillon should be scheduled to play at Ellet, I wouldn't think that Massillon would make any effort to have the game moved. They would take their half of the tickets and head to Ellet.
It can't be to much to rent Infocision, they had Firestone vs. North there last friday. I would think that Infocision would love 10,000 fans there just for the concessions. Would be like two home games for the Zips.

I think the extra revenue would be around $45,000.
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  #693  
Old 10-28-13, 12:58 PM
GRPride86 GRPride86 is offline
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Originally Posted by Dscoop View Post
Ellet holds 1200 (visitors side), 2000 (home side) and 800 sr (2 deep). If a place like Mogadore can have a home game, no reason Ellet can't. I would be willing to bet this is as large a stadium as many across Ohio that have home games. I just would like to be there (if Massillon is opponent) when 20,000 people try to buy 1200 tickets. Get the popcorn out.
You'll have to bring in more seating.
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  #694  
Old 10-28-13, 01:09 PM
Cruiseman Cruiseman is offline
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As I am looking at things, the only significant changes among the top 8 would occur if Nordonia downs Wadsworth and Massillon defeats McKinley. The other 6 games among the top 8 should be won by Highland, Avon, Ellet, Perrysburg, Avon Lake and Toledo SFDS. Am I missing something? Is so, let me know. Mind you, I am only talking about the top 8 in the region.
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  #695  
Old 10-28-13, 01:11 PM
GRPride86 GRPride86 is offline
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Sounds about right.
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  #696  
Old 10-28-13, 04:58 PM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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Originally Posted by Oil Filter View Post
On the flip side, that extra ticket revenue would have to cover the rent at Infocision. It's not clear that it would (at least not by a large enough margin to justify overriding Ellet's possible objections). Even with unlimited capacity, the game might draw no more than 10,000.

If Massillon should be scheduled to play at Ellet, I wouldn't think that Massillon would make any effort to have the game moved. They would take their half of the tickets and head to Ellet.

agreed...
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  #697  
Old 10-28-13, 05:00 PM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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Originally Posted by Cruiseman View Post
As I am looking at things, the only significant changes among the top 8 would occur if Nordonia downs Wadsworth and Massillon defeats McKinley. The other 6 games among the top 8 should be won by Highland, Avon, Ellet, Perrysburg, Avon Lake and Toledo SFDS. Am I missing something? Is so, let me know. Mind you, I am only talking about the top 8 in the region.
nope...thats about right...assuming a Massillon and Nordonia win...I am far less confident than Brian...but confident none the less...McK could very well "out stupid" us...
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  #698  
Old 10-28-13, 07:22 PM
cjb56 cjb56 is offline
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I've thought Massillon would get the win over McK all season, and I'm sticking with the prediction. If I'm wrong, than either Walsh or Southview will have battled their way into the playoff field, which would be a major accomplishment after both started off slowly.

I don't know why, but I have a feeling Avon is going to host Perrysburg again for the second straight season. I'd be happy with a similar result, too.
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  #699  
Old 10-28-13, 07:29 PM
cjb56 cjb56 is offline
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For anyone who hasn't yet seen it, Drew Pasteur has everything updated. He does a great job with that site.

http://www.fantastic50.net/
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  #700  
Old 10-28-13, 07:50 PM
OhioBobcatFan06 OhioBobcatFan06 is offline
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He is actually giving Massillon a fair shot at getting in with wins. Also seems to think Walsh has a much better shot at getting in than Southview.
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  #701  
Old 10-28-13, 08:00 PM
Oil Filter Oil Filter is offline
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Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
He is actually giving Massillon a fair shot at getting in with wins.
He projects the McKinley game as a push. In a nutshell, that game tells all for Massillon. It's not absolute dividing line, but (absent some small anomalies in both directions) it really is pretty simple: win or stay home.

From one standpoint, you shake your head at that. Win or lose on Saturday, no rational, honest observer would ever say that there are 8 teams in R2 (or 32 in D2) who are better than Massillon. From another, so what? This is the system; deal with it. All this chatter about their self-destructing schedule is true. It's also irrelevant. In spite of Perry and GlenOak and Firestone and MLC and the very sensible bewilderment of "WTF happened to all those guys?", Massillon had their chances. If they blow them all, that's on them.
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  #702  
Old 10-28-13, 08:13 PM
OhioBobcatFan06 OhioBobcatFan06 is offline
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Originally Posted by Oil Filter View Post
He projects the McKinley game as a push. In a nutshell, that game tells all for Massillon. It's not absolute dividing line, but (absent some small anomalies in both directions) it really is pretty simple: win or stay home.

From one standpoint, you shake your head at that. Win or lose on Saturday, no rational, honest observer would ever say that there are 8 teams in R2 (or 32 in D2) who are better than Massillon. From another, so what? This is the system; deal with it. All this chatter about their self-destructing schedule is true. It's also irrelevant. In spite of Perry and GlenOak and Firestone and MLC and the very sensible bewilderment of "WTF happened to all those guys?", Massillon had their chances. If they blow them all, that's on them.
I actually typed that wrong. I meant to say he gave them a higher % at getting in if they lose... I didn't think they had a shot but the %'s he had said otherwise.
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  #703  
Old 10-28-13, 10:36 PM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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OK i give why does Dr Drew say we should root for London....I looked at everyones schedule...no london ...what gives..lol
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  #704  
Old 10-28-13, 10:38 PM
1disciple 1disciple is offline
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Projections so far from Drew.

Region 4 Projections
1) Highland (Medina) (10-0) 32.05
2) Nordonia (Macedonia) (9-1) 28.30
3) Avon (10-0) 27.10
4) Ellet (Akron) (10-0) 24.90
5) Perrysburg (8-2) 22.80
6) St Francis De Sales (Toledo) (8-2) 22.60
7) Avon Lake (8-2) 22.30
8) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (7-3) 19.32

Those are some very, very good match ups.
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  #705  
Old 10-28-13, 10:49 PM
cjb56 cjb56 is offline
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Originally Posted by unclebob View Post
OK i give why does Dr Drew say we should root for London....I looked at everyones schedule...no london ...what gives..lol
I don't even see London or East Clinton figuring into any Level 3 points scenario for Massillon versus anyone, so Dr. Pasteur will have to explain that one to us.
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  #706  
Old 10-29-13, 07:21 AM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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I checked all the the opponents of the top 12 as well....nothin....(I was bored)...lol
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  #707  
Old 10-29-13, 10:54 AM
Maple_City_Fan Maple_City_Fan is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1disciple View Post
Projections so far from Drew.

Region 4 Projections
1) Highland (Medina) (10-0) 32.05
2) Nordonia (Macedonia) (9-1) 28.30
3) Avon (10-0) 27.10
4) Ellet (Akron) (10-0) 24.90
5) Perrysburg (8-2) 22.80
6) St Francis De Sales (Toledo) (8-2) 22.60
7) Avon Lake (8-2) 22.30
8) Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) (7-3) 19.32

Those are some very, very good match ups.
If those matchups hold up, I think the only one I may be comfortable having a higher seed winning is Nordonia over AL.
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  #708  
Old 10-29-13, 12:01 PM
cjb56 cjb56 is offline
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Originally Posted by ross football fan View Post
If those matchups hold up, I think the only one I may be comfortable having a higher seed winning is Nordonia over AL.
I wouldn't even be that comfortable with that one. Avon Lake is better than last year's team, and that team played a very respectable playoff game against a Whitmer team that nobody in this region matches. AL struggles against good passing attacks, which Nordonia has, but they can also keep the Knights offense off the field with ball-control running and short passes. So there is a credible strategy for Avon Lake to beat Nordonia. I would favor Nordonia, though.

I watched the video of the St. Francis DeSales win over Whitmer. TSF is a good looking team, very similar to Avon. That would be a really good first round match up. Avon runs their offense much more crisp than does TSF, so that would put a lot of pressure on the secondary of TSF. TSF does a nice job of spreading the field and running, so that would be a challenge for the Avon defense. The only thing I can say for sure is that TSF doesn't look anywhere near as good as last year's Toledo CC and Whitmer teams from the TRAC, and they don't even look as good as the 2011 TCC team that Avon faced in Fremont. They do, however, look like a very solid football team that can win playoff games in this region.
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  #709  
Old 10-29-13, 02:02 PM
OhioBobcatFan06 OhioBobcatFan06 is offline
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Has anyone looked closely at the numbers if Southview wins and Massillon loses?

I looked at who Southview's wins play and who Massillon's wins play and without doing any calculations it actually looks somewhat reasonable that Massillon could come out near the Max end of their Harbin total if they lose and Southview could come out near the bottom end of theirs... Now, this spread between max/min is very small...

Pasteur's site was giving Massillon a 8% chance to make the playoffs at 7 wins... Assuming Walsh loses (a must) it actually doesn't seem completely impossible that Massillon could hold off Southview even if McK wins...
Again, haven't looked at the numbers too much, just going off what results I would expect from the L2 teams at play...
If you assume Walsh loses, I would think Massillon's playoff chances at 7 wins move up to closer to 25%. Still not great but interesting.
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  #710  
Old 10-29-13, 02:53 PM
1disciple 1disciple is offline
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Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
Has anyone looked closely at the numbers if Southview wins and Massillon loses?

I looked at who Southview's wins play and who Massillon's wins play and without doing any calculations it actually looks somewhat reasonable that Massillon could come out near the Max end of their Harbin total if they lose and Southview could come out near the bottom end of theirs... Now, this spread between max/min is very small...

Pasteur's site was giving Massillon a 8% chance to make the playoffs at 7 wins... Assuming Walsh loses (a must) it actually doesn't seem completely impossible that Massillon could hold off Southview even if McK wins...
Again, haven't looked at the numbers too much, just going off what results I would expect from the L2 teams at play...
If you assume Walsh loses, I would think Massillon's playoff chances at 7 wins move up to closer to 25%. Still not great but interesting.
The L2 output for Southview is a tad bit more than Massillon. What hurts Massillon is the fact that their Canadian opponents last game does not count in regards to OHSAA rankings.
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  #711  
Old 10-29-13, 03:14 PM
Oil Filter Oil Filter is offline
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Originally Posted by 1disciple View Post
The L2 output for Southview is a tad bit more than Massillon. What hurts Massillon is the fact that their Canadian opponents last game does not count in regards to OHSAA rankings.
What hurts Massillon is Perry, MLC, Firestone, and (to a slightly lesser extent) GlenOak and Harding turning themselves into roadkill. Massillon's defeated opponents are, in the aggregate, about 12-15 wins below any reasonable expectation. With no better than normal performance from those teams, the Tigers would be in the top 4 today with a spot clinched.

You go into every season expecting that a couple of teams will do a little better than anticipated, and a couple of others will do a little worse. You don't expect everyone you play to finish 8-2, and you can't predict a complete schedule collapse.

It happens.
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  #712  
Old 10-29-13, 09:52 PM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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Originally Posted by OhioBobcatFan06 View Post
Has anyone looked closely at the numbers if Southview wins and Massillon loses?

I looked at who Southview's wins play and who Massillon's wins play and without doing any calculations it actually looks somewhat reasonable that Massillon could come out near the Max end of their Harbin total if they lose and Southview could come out near the bottom end of theirs... Now, this spread between max/min is very small...

Pasteur's site was giving Massillon a 8% chance to make the playoffs at 7 wins... Assuming Walsh loses (a must) it actually doesn't seem completely impossible that Massillon could hold off Southview even if McK wins...
Again, haven't looked at the numbers too much, just going off what results I would expect from the L2 teams at play...
If you assume Walsh loses, I would think Massillon's playoff chances at 7 wins move up to closer to 25%. Still not great but interesting.
nope not gonna happen....its safe to assume St Fran beats Findlay and Perrysburg beat Maumee....leaving L2s from past opponents at 12.0 or 11.5....Leaving them at 18.25 or 18.20

Massillon could reasonably pick up wins from warren,mlc,steuby...leaving 21.5 L2s for a total of 17.7567...

No way in hell Firestone beats Garfield...so that would be the max and not enough...its why Drew has it rightly around 8%
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  #713  
Old 10-29-13, 09:53 PM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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thanks i like the math...
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  #714  
Old 10-29-13, 09:58 PM
Striker300 Striker300 is offline
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None of it matters if Massillon wins.
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  #715  
Old 10-29-13, 10:00 PM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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yep
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  #716  
Old 10-29-13, 10:15 PM
1disciple 1disciple is offline
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My hopes for a Massillon loss are purely selfish
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  #717  
Old 10-30-13, 10:31 AM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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Originally Posted by Striker300 View Post
None of it matters if Massillon wins.
but that has nothing to do with the question asked...
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  #718  
Old 10-30-13, 10:32 AM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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Originally Posted by 1disciple View Post
My hopes for a Massillon loss are purely selfish
If I were in your shoes I would too....Id be prayin for Hoban and McK...
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  #719  
Old 10-30-13, 10:57 AM
cjb56 cjb56 is offline
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From the times I've seen each team, I think Massillon is the better of the two. It's a rivalry game of the highest magnitude, though, so I expect it to be tight with the Tigers winning. Of course, EGW is the ultimate X factor, and he can change a game by himself...so McK cannot be counted out.

I admire the Southview and Walsh Jesuit programs, and if they get in...welcome to the party. Selfishly, I want the region measured against the storied Massillon program. Additionally, for Avon...the first hits of the season against someone not wearing purple and gold came at Avon on a nice hot early August evening against the Massillon Tigers. Ditto for the Tigers first hits of the year against someone else. To me, it would be fitting for one of those two to end the other's season in the region final to bring it full circle...and the winner taking it all the way to the D2 title. I realize fans of the other playoff teams in R4 won't feel the same way -- haha. Good luck to everyone this weekend!
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  #720  
Old 10-30-13, 11:23 AM
1disciple 1disciple is offline
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Originally Posted by unclebob View Post
If I were in your shoes I would too....Id be prayin for Hoban and McK...

Trust me I am.
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