Region 4 projections/Harbin Calculator: the last week!
Here we are the final week and man, what some GREAT games I had the privileged to watch in week 9 including the OT win by Miamisburg over Lebanon as well as Iggy over X and Ed's over Moe.....
LaSalle losing really impacted the projections for this week... I have 10 teams left that have a realistic shot of a playoff spot.
IN: Colerain, Springboro, Elder, Wayne, and Moeller
Win and IN: Lakota West and Sycamore
Win and need help: Miamisburg, St.Xavier, Lakota East
Win and need lots of help: Lebanon, Mason
Sure, there are other mathematical ways for other teams to get in but I'm trying to keep it realistic.
Region 4 Projections
01 Colerain xx.xxx will be #1 seed regardless
02 Springboro 31.650
03 Elder ____ 29.252
04 Wayne ___ 28.791
05 Lakota West 26.550
06 Sycamore __ 25.650
07 Moeller ____ 25.132 [Trinity]
08 Miamisburg _ 22.800
09 St.Xavier __ 22.489
XX Lakota East 18.000 [Lakota West]
------------------------------------------------------ Harbin Calculator - all you have to do is add the numbers to the Harbin total in the games that you feel a team will win.....
Teams listed in order by their actual harbin totals
#1 Colerain #1 seed..... so why bother....
#2 Springboro
26.450 Actual Harbin Total
04.050 win @ Lebanon
00.600 Mason wins @ Sycamore
00.600 Centerville wins @ Springfield
00.600 Fairmont wins @ Beavercreek
00.550 Sidney wins vs Greenville
00.600 Piqua wins vs Troy
00.050 West Carrollton wins vs Miamisburg
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#3 ELDER
24.662 Actual Harbin Total
02.823 win vs LaSalle
00.606 Centerville wins @ Springfield
00.606 Upper Arlington wins @ Coffman
00.606 Moe wins vs Trinity
00.606 Winton Woods wins @ glen este
00.555 Highland wins @ Ryle
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#4 Huber Heights Wayne
23.444 Actual Harbin Total
04.135 win @ Northmont
00.606 winton woods wins @ glen Este
00.606 Xenia wins vs Fairborn
00.606 Fairmont wins vs Beavercreek
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#5 Moeller
23.398 Actual Harbin Total
05.498 win vs Trinity
00.561 Gilman wins vs. McDon-
00.561 Grand Rapids CHR win vs Fruitport MI
00.612 Detroit CC win vs Hartland MI
00.612 Louisville St. X win vs St.Xavier
00.612 LaSalle wins @ Elder
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#6 Lakota West
21.750 Actual Harbin Total
04.200 win vs Lakota East
00.600 LaSalle wins @ Elder
00.550 Glen Este wins @ Winton Woods
00.550 Anderson wins @ Kings
00.600 Mason wins @ Sycamore
00.600 Fairfield wins vs Hamilton
00.600 Oak Hills wins @ Colerain
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#7 Sycamore
21.450 Actual Harbin Total
04.200 win vs Mason
00.550 Anderson wins @ Kings
00.600 Springfield wins vs Centerville
00.600 Lakota East wins @ Lakota West
00.600 Princeton wins @ Middletown
00.600 Oak Hills wins @ Colerain
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#8 Miamisburg
19.000 Actual Harbin Total
02.250 win vs West Carrollton
00.500 Bellbrook win vs Monroe
00.500 Franklin win vs Oakwood
00.550 Troy win over Piqua
00.600 Lebanon win over Springboro
16.850 Actual Harbin Total
05.350 wins @ Lakota West
00.550 Western Hills wins vs Amelia
00.600 Northmont wins vs Wayne
00.600 Oak Hills wins @ Colerain
00.600 Middletown wins vs Princeton
Game projections will be edited in here later.....
WEEK 10 V2S GAME PROJECTIONS
GMC
Oak Hills at Colerain by 31
Hamilton at Fairfield by 4
Lakota East at Lakota West by 9
Mason at Sycamore by 8
Princeton at Middletown by 5
GWOC
Springboro by 11 at Lebanon
Beavercreek by 12 at Fairmont
Centerville by 18 at Springfield
Wayne by 3 at Northmont
Fairborn at Xenia by 24
West Carrollton at Miamisburg by 28
Butler at Trotwood-Madison by 24
Greenville at Sidney by 6
Troy by 5 at Piqua
GCL-S
LaSalle at Elder by 20
Louisville St. Xavier at St. Xavier by 20
Louisville Trinity by 12 at Moeller
L2 Others
Amelia @ Western Hills by 7
Anderson @ Kings by 11
Bellbrook by 7 @ Lemon Monroe
Fruitport MI @ Grand Rapids Christian MI by 36
Hartland MI @ Detroit CC MI by 15
Highland KY by 28 @ Ryle KY
Lancaster by 18 @ Newark
Loveland by 25 @ Milford
McDonogh School MD @ Gilman MD by 27
Oakwood @ Franklin by 23
Upper Arlington @ Coffman by 19
Winton Woods by 12 @ Glen Este
What if Mason beats Sycamore? Does Sycamore still go and Mason stays out of the playoffs?
I added Mason.....
In that scenario, Sycamore would be at 21.450 while Mason would be 20.150. Sycamore would be out and St. Xavier would be in. Mason would be out.
Mason can max out at 21.900... that is by winning and have:
Lancaster beat Newark (will happen)
Glen Este beat Winton woods (not likely but if Loveland beat them who knows)
LE beat LW (rivalry game ... could happen)
Princeton over Middletown (toss-up ?? )
I have MASON out and unrealistically being able to make it.... but....
Now, to get Mason into the playoffs you do NOT WANT Lakota East to beat Lakota West. That would drop you to 21.300 but it keeps East from moving ahead of Mason (West would still be ahead of Mason if they lost.) Now, this is the problem. No matter what, Mason cannot pass up Sycamore nor can they pass up both East and West. So we have 5 teams ahead of Mason that have already qualified plus Sycamore and East or West. That is 7. One more team and that would eliminate Mason. Mason needs St. Xavier to lose to Louisville St. X and Springboro to beat Lebanon. If that happens and Mason wins plus all their L2 games except LE/LW goes their way then that would place them at 9th at 21.300. The only team left they could pass up and get them in the playoffs would be Miamisburg who would be sitting at 22.800. They would need Miamisburg to either lose to West Carrollton (which would be a HUGE upset) or have all of these games go like this:
--- Monroe over Bellbrook
--- Oakwood over Franklin
--- Piqua over Troy
There is a real good chance that Colerain could play X in the first round. If they lost, they might be able to play some other team maybe someone easier than X. Hmm
It looks like the Lebanon/ Springboro game is HUGE. I don't see Lebanon beating them. And it doesn't look good for Lakota East.
I don't see Lebanon making it by beating Springboro unless their are other upsets that help them out.
Springboro will still host if they lose assuming that Moe loses to Trinity. They would actually be better off losing to get a more favorable first round opponent but I doubt that would EVER be considered.... Do you think any coach would "throw" a game to get a better first round match up?
Ok. So for East its win and in? Would they jump Miamisburg also?
East: Win and IN.... Most likely. The thing with East is that they have 3 L2 games that could go one way or another. They could actually beat West and still be behind them. According to my projections though, East beating West and all other L2 games go as projected they would make the playoffs at 23.350 points. West would be 22.350 so we would have:
01 Colerain xx.xxx will be #1 seed regardless
02 Springboro 31.650
03 Elder ____ 29.252
04 Wayne ___ 28.791
05 Sycamore __ 26.250
06 Moeller ____ 24.789 [Trinity]
07 Lakota East 23.350
08 Miamisburg _ 22.800
There is a real good chance that Colerain could play X in the first round. If they lost, they might be able to play some other team maybe someone easier than X. Hmm
Colerain losing would still put them at #1. Strange L2 occurrences would have to happen for them to drop to #2.
I was just looking for the easiest route to get Wayne to Welcome for the regional finals.... LOL....
If Wayne gets to the regional finals, they will be in Cincy and if Colerain and for ex, X get in the finals; it will be at Welcome. I think it is an OHSAA rule
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