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  #1  
Old 10-27-17, 08:58 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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NCAA Prediction vs Rankings

I'll soon be wrapping up my preseason rankings and get into my weekly rankings. Before I do so, I thought I'd touch on Predictions vs Rankings. And before I do P vs R, I'll relive my depression after the NCAAs and how I got over it. I simply put on my scarlet and gray glasses and pretended that the NCAA was canceled this year, and the championship was awarded after the B10s to whoever won the strongest conference in the nation (hint: it was the tOSU). To remind you all what happened there, tOSU walked away from that tournament victorious over heavy favorite PSU, just a month after being pummeled by the Nittany Lions in a dual by a score of 32-12. tOSU ended with 4 champs while PSU limped away with just 2. MyMar beat Nickal (semis), Bo beat Hall, Nate beat Clark and Moore beat Pfarr. Oh yeah, Snyder won. All was good as the Buckeyes were now official title threats. To make matters even better, Suriano was still a question mark heading into the NCAAs. Well, we all know how that went. Even so, one could make an argument that tOSU over performed at the B10s and PSU over performed at the NCAAs. We still have a chance next year, right? Not many bought this argument.

Then in mid July I came out from under my bed and did a thread on NCAA Rumors in which I listed three outrageous rumors that might impact the foregone conclusion that PSU would steamroll everyone in the 2018 NCAA.
1. Nato will go 125.
2. AA Joey McKenna is transferring out of Stanford and tOSU is on his short list.
3. Suriano is transferring out of PSU, or bumping to 133 if he stays.


I had nothing to base these on, other than they were being kicked around on various websites and blogs, and it would help tOSU cause if any or all were to come about. A month later the Suriano rumor broke first, but was complicated with the "release but sit a year" scenario that wouldn't be resolved for almost another month. Within days, McKenna was a Buckeye, NaTo was a 125 lb'er, and we now had closed the gap considerably, even with 5 PSU NCAA champs,. It was a race for the title in Cleveland.

Now the Prediction vs Ranking. (And by this time the Pope surely has a headache.) Anyone can do rankings. I compile rankings to get a sense of who the players are for the team title. The venues that I currently follow are Intermat (IM), Amatuer Wrestling News (AWN), Flowrestling (Flo), Trackwrestling (TW), Wrestling Insider Magazine (WIN) and The Open Mat (TOM). Preseason rankings are based in a large part on how you did in the previous NCAAs (this is where you deserve to be ranked). Predictions take a closer look at "body of work," (this is what I think you'll do this coming season). The best example is 165 Joseph at PSU. He beat 2x NCAA champ IMar in the NCAA finals last year, but IMar beat him twice earlier in the year. Joseph "deserves" to be ranked #1, but some might "predict" that IMar wins his 3rd title this season over Joseph.

Flo is the only one of my ranking venues that, to my knowledge, do both a ranking and a prediction.
Here's the ranking of tOSU and PSU
tOSU
125 - 1
133 - 10
141 - 6 (McKenna)
149 - 9 (Hayes)
157 - 4
165 - 11
174 - 3
184 - 2
197 - 1
285 - 1
Points - 117

Flo - PSU
125 - UR
133 - UR
141 - UR
149 - 1
157 - 1
165 - 1
174 - 1
184 - 1
197 - 4
285 - 4
Points - 125
An 8 point edge for PSU

And here's Flo's Prediction

Flo - tOSU
125 - 2
133 - 6
141 - 3 (McKenna)
149 - 5 (Hayes)
157 - 4
165 - 11
174 - 3
184 - 2
197 - 1
285 - 1
Points - 132.5

Flo - PSU
125 - UR
133 - UR
141 - UR
149 - 1
157 - 1
165 - 3
174 - 2
184 - 1
197 - 5
285 - 4
Points - 112
Their prediction model gives tOSU a whopping 20.5 lead (w/o bonus points) over PSU.

Last edited by bdhof; 10-27-17 at 10:54 AM.
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Old 10-27-17, 03:14 PM
Pope Francis 1 Pope Francis 1 is offline
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I have a headache!
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Old 10-27-17, 03:26 PM
andegre andegre is offline
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What, no WrestleStat?
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Old 10-27-17, 05:18 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andegre View Post
What, no WrestleStat?
A year ago or so I toyed with the idea of including WrestleStat (WS) but then decided against it due to the unique makeup. The others are human rankings and I simply average them. WS is a statistical analysis that uses algorithms. I don't even know what an algorithm is, much less how it works. I really like WS and use it quite a bit, but it's a different animal, better in some respects in the rankings but maybe inferior in others.
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