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  #1  
Old 09-16-18, 04:53 PM
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Region 1 after Week 4

St Eds over Elder, WGH over Fitch, Mentor over Strongsville, and Perry over Jackson were the games that had the highest Region 1 stakes this weekend. While their chances are still very slim, I have to add that Cleveland Heights (2-2) had an important win over previously unbeaten Lake Catholic. The Tigers need to win out in order to get in the playoffs. Not likely, but they are only significant underdogs against one team - Lorain.

Unless something out of the ordinary happens, like St Ignatius winning out, it looks like there is a good chance that the top three teams of the GCC will all host in Week 11 - and about a 50/50 chance the three can finish with the top three seeds in Region 1. If Strongsville or Medina upsets one of the big three, that won't happen. After watching Strongsville this weekend and seeing that Euclid thrashed Medina, I don't think that is likely.

Here are my projections after Week 4:

1 Mentor (10-0) 40.188
2 Solon (9-1) 30.100
3 St Eds (7-2) 29.444
4 Euclid (7-3) 25.050
5 McKinley (8-2) 23.993
6 Fitch (7-3) 21.776
7 Jackson (7-3) 21.000
8 Strongsville (7-3) 19.450
9 Berea (7-3) 18.550
10 Ignatius (6-4) 17.051
11 Cle Hts (7-3) 17.600
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  #2  
Old 09-16-18, 05:13 PM
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https://www.fantastic50.net/r01proj.html

LOVE Drew Pasteur's site. He does awesome work and I'm so glad he puts all of that out there for free. Here are his projections below. As great as it is, you have to understand his simulation process and a general knowledge of statistics to get something out of what is below. For instance (and Drew, chime in if you read this) after all of these simluations, Solon is 8-2, Euclid is 7-3, and Strongsville is 7-3. That is an impossible since the winner of Solon/Euclid should have a better record. But that is the average/median after thousands of simulations. Also, we were pretty far off on our McKinley projection. I'm sure it was my mistake, but I can't figure out what I did wrong. It could just be the difficulty his system has in projecting OOS teams, like McKinley's Week 3 opponent from D.C.

1. Mentor (10-0) 38.98
2. Canton McKinley (8-2) 27.02
3. Solon (8-2) 26.35
4. Euclid (7-3) 25.10
5. Lakewood St Edward (6-3) 25.06
6. Austintown-Fitch (7-3) 21.37
7. Strongsville (7-3) 20.70
8. Cleveland St Ignatius (5-5) 15.99
9. Berea-Midpark (6-4) 15.50
10. Massillon Jackson (5-5) 15.45
11. Cleveland Heights (6-4) 14.85
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  #3  
Old 09-16-18, 05:17 PM
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Magic number of wins to have a 90% or better chances of making the playoffs:

8: Cleveland Heights, Berea
7: Jackson, Fitch, St Ignatius, McKinley, Solon, Strongsville
6: Mentor, Euclid
5: St Edward

Last edited by cardzfan1234; 09-17-18 at 06:48 AM.
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Old 09-16-18, 06:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardzfan1234 View Post
https://www.fantastic50.net/r01proj.html

LOVE Drew Pasteur's site. He does awesome work and I'm so glad he puts all of that out there for free. Here are his projections below. As great as it is, you have to understand his simulation process and a general knowledge of statistics to get something out of what is below. For instance (and Drew, chime in if you read this) after all of these simluations, Solon is 8-2, Euclid is 7-3, and Strongsville is 7-3. That is an impossible since the winner of Solon/Euclid should have a better record. But that is the average/median after thousands of simulations. Also, we were pretty far off on our McKinley projection. I'm sure it was my mistake, but I can't figure out what I did wrong. It could just be the difficulty his system has in projecting OOS teams, like McKinley's Week 3 opponent from D.C.

1. Mentor (10-0) 38.98
2. Canton McKinley (8-2) 27.02
3. Solon (8-2) 26.35
4. Euclid (7-3) 25.10
5. Lakewood St Edward (6-3) 25.06
6. Austintown-Fitch (7-3) 21.37
7. Strongsville (7-3) 20.70
8. Cleveland St Ignatius (5-5) 15.99
9. Berea-Midpark (6-4) 15.50
10. Massillon Jackson (5-5) 15.45
11. Cleveland Heights (6-4) 14.85
Yes, I am predicting middle-of-the-road scenarios for each team, which sometimes leads to combinations of records that are unlikely or impossible.

While my system is better than it used to be with predicting non-Ohio teams' records, it's still a weakness of this approach. Someone who understands the Harbin system well and carefully goes through the future schedules can probably do just as well or better than me in predicting final point totals. Thanks, cardzfan1234, for your great analysis of NE Ohio football!
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Old 09-16-18, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by fantastic50 View Post
Yes, I am predicting middle-of-the-road scenarios for each team, which sometimes leads to combinations of records that are unlikely or impossible.

While my system is better than it used to be with predicting non-Ohio teams' records, it's still a weakness of this approach. Someone who understands the Harbin system well and carefully goes through the future schedules can probably do just as well or better than me in predicting final point totals. Thanks, cardzfan1234, for your great analysis of NE Ohio football!
Got to compliment you on your site. You do such a wonderful job with all the info! People can find almost anything they need for their team, and for the rest of the state, for playoff projections. Love the site!
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  #6  
Old 09-16-18, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by cardzfan1234 View Post
St Eds over Elder, WGH over Fitch, Mentor over Strongsville, and Perry over Jackson were the games that had the highest Region 1 stakes this weekend. While their chances are still very slim, I have to add that Cleveland Heights (2-2) had an important win over previously unbeaten Lake Catholic. The Tigers need to win out in order to get in the playoffs. Not likely, but they are only significant underdogs against one team - Lorain.

Unless something out of the ordinary happens, like St Ignatius winning out, it looks like there is a good chance that the top three teams of the GCC will all host in Week 11 - and about a 50/50 chance the three can finish with the top three seeds in Region 1. If Strongsville or Medina upsets one of the big three, that won't happen. After watching Strongsville this weekend and seeing that Euclid thrashed Medina, I don't think that is likely.

Here are my projections after Week 4:

1 Mentor (10-0) 40.188
2 Solon (9-1) 30.100
3 St Eds (7-2) 29.444
4 Euclid (7-3) 25.050
5 McKinley (8-2) 23.993
6 Fitch (7-3) 21.776
7 Jackson (7-3) 21.000
8 Strongsville (7-3) 19.450
9 Berea (7-3) 18.550
10 Ignatius (6-4) 17.051
11 Cle Hts (7-3) 17.600
My projections are pretty similar, have the same top 8 and looks like we have just a few differences in some L2 games.

1. Mentor, 10-0: 39.75
2. Solon, 9-1: 30.8
3. St. Edward, 7-2: 29.44
4. Euclid, 7-3: 25.0
5. McKinley, 8-2: 24.39
6. Fitch, 7-3: 20.96
7. Strongsville, 7-3: 20.4
8. Jackson, 6-4: 18.35

9. St. Ignatius, 5-4: 17.6
10. Stow, 6-4: 16.7
11. Medina, 5-5: 15.05
12. Cleveland Heights, 6-2: 12.1
13. Berea-Midpark, 5-5: 9.0

For now, I'm going off the assumption that the COF game (Ignatius) will ultimately not count toward Harbins, which would be beneficial to St. Ignatius. If it counts, and COF goes winless, St. Ignatius drops to 16.38.

Looks like you have Jackson losing only to McKinley. I also have them losing to Hoover, which historically has had Jackson's number, and the Vikings seem to be solid this season.

Interesting that you have Berea-Midpark at 7-3. I have them at 5-5, but I still have a higher L2 projection for Strongsville. You must not be high on Hudson or Canton Central Catholic. I still have Hudson winning six games (have them falling to Stow, but winning the rest, including an upset over Wadsworth in Week 10, which would be a play-in game for the Explorers if they enter that at 5-4.) I think Central Catholic loses to Jackson, but wins the rest of their games.

It's not likely, but Medina still has a shot at making a huge jump (and the GCC could still get five in) if the Bees enter the Solon game 5-4 and can pull the upset there, and Medina has played the Comets tough the past two years. Suddenly, Cleveland Heights looks like a Harbin cow (though I also have them losing to Maple Heights as well as Lorain). I think Highland has a shot at finishing 9-1 as it looks like Barberton isn't as strong as they were last year. Anyway, as long as both those teams combine for 14 wins, and Medina upsets a 8-1 Solon team, Medina would jump to around 20 points. Of course, a lot of other things can happen, that could still keep them out, but it's the only scenario where the GCC can still get five teams in. (Well, I guess there always is the possibility that Shaker gets to 7 wins, but I don't have them in my projections and actually not sure 7 will be enough because Shaw and Benedictine aren't going to win many games).

And actually, Medina also has a shot at getting in at 6-4 if they beat Strongsville. I would have them at 19.3, and Strongsville would be eliminated.
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  #7  
Old 09-16-18, 08:16 PM
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I am expert on hudson, they have many injuries right now,they wont beat Nordonia.
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  #8  
Old 09-16-18, 10:00 PM
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I am expert on hudson, they have many injuries right now,they wont beat Nordonia.
Well they better win, because if not, the playoffs will be just about gone
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Old 09-16-18, 10:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardzfan1234 View Post
St Eds over Elder, WGH over Fitch, Mentor over Strongsville, and Perry over Jackson were the games that had the highest Region 1 stakes this weekend. While their chances are still very slim, I have to add that Cleveland Heights (2-2) had an important win over previously unbeaten Lake Catholic. The Tigers need to win out in order to get in the playoffs. Not likely, but they are only significant underdogs against one team - Lorain.

Unless something out of the ordinary happens, like St Ignatius winning out, it looks like there is a good chance that the top three teams of the GCC will all host in Week 11 - and about a 50/50 chance the three can finish with the top three seeds in Region 1. If Strongsville or Medina upsets one of the big three, that won't happen. After watching Strongsville this weekend and seeing that Euclid thrashed Medina, I don't think that is likely.

Here are my projections after Week 4:

1 Mentor (10-0) 40.188
2 Solon (9-1) 30.100
3 St Eds (7-2) 29.444
4 Euclid (7-3) 25.050
5 McKinley (8-2) 23.993
6 Fitch (7-3) 21.776
7 Jackson (7-3) 21.000
8 Strongsville (7-3) 19.450
9 Berea (7-3) 18.550
10 Ignatius (6-4) 17.051
11 Cle Hts (7-3) 17.600
Dang, cardz! You got a testimonial from Drew Pasteur himself. That's like being knighted by Henry VIII. You do a great job with this information. You deserve the accolades.
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  #10  
Old 09-17-18, 07:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Metacomet View Post
Dang, cardz! You got a testimonial from Drew Pasteur himself. That's like being knighted by Henry VIII. You do a great job with this information. You deserve the accolades.
Thanks! Joe Eitel and Drew Pasteur are the data kings of high school football.
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  #11  
Old 09-17-18, 07:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SVillegrad View Post
For now, I'm going off the assumption that the COF game (Ignatius) will ultimately not count toward Harbins, which would be beneficial to St. Ignatius. If it counts, and COF goes winless, St. Ignatius drops to 16.38
OHSAA has said that the game will be treated like an OOS opponent. Unless/until that changes, I'm counting it as such. And like you and everyone else, I'm projecting COF goes winless (0-10 officially, but they are scheduled to play 12 games).

Quote:
Looks like you have Jackson losing only to McKinley. I also have them losing to Hoover, which historically has had Jackson's number, and the Vikings seem to be solid this season.
Who knows how the Fed will shake out. I'm glad to see that my 8-2 McKinley projections look similar to yours. As for Jackson, I could see them going anywhere from 5-5 to 8-2. McKinely really only has one game out of six that I think they are guaranteed to win: GlenOak. The other five (Massillon, Jackson, Hoover, Perry, and Lake) could go any which way. The Fed is very hard to predict because a lot of the teams are so evenly matched.

Quote:
Interesting that you have Berea-Midpark at 7-3. I have them at 5-5, but I still have a higher L2 projection for Strongsville. You must not be high on Hudson or Canton Central Catholic. I still have Hudson winning six games (have them falling to Stow, but winning the rest, including an upset over Wadsworth in Week 10, which would be a play-in game for the Explorers if they enter that at 5-4.) I think Central Catholic loses to Jackson, but wins the rest of their games.
Maybe I'm crazy for having Berea 7-3, but I'm going to stick with it. The big telling game for them will be Amherst. As for Strongsville's L2's, you have Hudson/CCC finishing 10-2. I have them going 6-6. Who knows? I could see it going either way, but that is how I projected them for now. The Suburban could be similar to the Fed where the difference between the No. 1 and No. 4 team is so small, anything can happen.
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Old 09-17-18, 10:23 AM
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Absurd as it may be...Should John Marshall run the table the rest of the way (which would include a remarkable upset of Glenville)...Where do the Lawyers place in the scheme of things?
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Old 09-17-18, 10:51 AM
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Absurd as it may be...Should John Marshall run the table the rest of the way (which would include a remarkable upset of Glenville)...Where do the Lawyers place in the scheme of things?
Pretty absurd, yes. Pasteur projects an 8-1 win John Marshall team around 19-20 final total harbin score...a 66% chance of making the playoffs. IF John Marshall had found a way to start 3-0 in non-conference and IF they had a full schedule, maybe a 9-1 season (with a loss to Glenville) would have been good enough.

FWIW, the Glenville team I saw in Week 3 at Mentor was easily the worst Tarblooders team I have seen. But if Marshall lost by 19 to Valley Forge, I don't think they are going to hang with the Tarblooders. Pasteur projects John Marshall to lose by 27 to Glenville.
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Old 09-17-18, 10:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mustang fan View Post
Absurd as it may be...Should John Marshall run the table the rest of the way (which would include a remarkable upset of Glenville)...Where do the Lawyers place in the scheme of things?
Good ol' mustangfan!

at 8-1 they might get close to 20 points, which puts them square in the chase for spot #8.
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Old 09-17-18, 11:24 AM
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Cleveland Heights has found a new weapon,Justin Wodtly A 6'3 245lb full back #15,will be a load for any defensive line in the LEL https://heightstigers.com/photos/foo...-18#photo_1951
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Old 09-17-18, 12:15 PM
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Thanks cardzfan for the calculation for John Marshall.

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Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
Good ol' mustangfan!

at 8-1 they might get close to 20 points, which puts them square in the chase for spot #8.
Number crunchers appear to be calculating the possibility for just about all others teams that they speculate having an opportunity for the post season...Some teams with the prospect with as few as five wins...I figure may as well put John Marshall in the discussion as well...At least until the Lawyers lose another game that is...
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Old 09-17-18, 12:56 PM
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If Cleveland Heights, John Marshall, or Stow win out - they are right there in the conversation. In the case of Heights and Stow, they would be around 22 or so total harbin score and almost assured of it. Stow has a big one against Wadsworth, seemingly the favorite in the Suburban, this week. If Stow pulls that off, winning their last five is certainly on the table. The fate of Cleveland Heights will be decided in Week 6 as they host Lorain.
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Old 09-17-18, 01:04 PM
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Dang, cardz! You got a testimonial from Drew Pasteur himself. That's like being knighted by Henry VIII. You do a great job with this information. You deserve the accolades.
Yeah cardz & EagleFan are up there with the best of them.
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  #19  
Old 09-18-18, 08:46 AM
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Games of the Week in Region 1

St Ignatius (2-2) vs Elder (3-1) - This is probably the most important game in Division I this weekend. Both teams could use a win. Elder's schedule is about to get incredibly difficult with three GCL games and St Edward still remaining. St Ignatius has Elder and Moeller at home this year...the Cats need one or probably both of those wins in order to have a shot at making the playoffs. If St Ignatius loses to Elder, they would have to win out the rest of their schedule to make the playoffs. With Moeller, St X, and St Eds left - that is not a good position to be in.

Strongsville (3-1) vs Solon (4-0) - For all intents and purposes, the winner locks up a playoff spot. The loser is still in the thick of things. Strongsville has lost 9 straight to the Comets. Solon is out to prove that they are a force to be reckoned with in the league and in the region. A convincing win over Strongsville would do that.

Jackson (2-2) vs Lake (3-1) - The Fed is a crapshoot week after week. A loss here would put Jackson in a very tough bind. I would argue that they would be sealing their fate of missing the playoffs if they lose to Lake. Jackson needs 7 wins to get in, and this better be one of them. It would be a tall task to ask Jackson to win their last five.

McKinley (4-0) vs Hoover (3-1) - This is the kind of game that will help determine the winner of the Fed. If McKinley starts off 5-0, you can write them into the playoffs. Lots of tough games (Perry, Jackson, Massillon) still remain for the Pups, fresh off a close win over a probable 0-10 Green team. A loss to Hoover and there becomes a reasonable path to a 6-4 season...one that would see McKinley miss the playoffs.

Fitch (3-1) @ Youngstown East (3-1) - After a surprising beat down from WGH, Fitch needs a pick me up. This is a must win game for Fitch, plain and simple. The second half of their schedule is tougher than the first, so a 4-1 start would be huge for them. A loss to Massillon in Week 6 is very likely, so losing to East this week would likely mean a three game losing streak heading into the home stretch of October.
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Old 09-18-18, 03:22 PM
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My projections, based on game results posted here:
http://www.yappi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=316143


1. Mentor 10-0 38.1677
2. Solon 9-1 30.1500
3. Canton McKinley 8-2 26.1141
4. Lakewood St. Edward 6-3 26.0793
5. Euclid 7-3 24.4500
6. Austintown Fitch 7-3 21.2000
7. Strongsville 7-3 20.5000
8. Massillon Jackson 6-4 17.2500

9. Berea-Midpark 6-4 14.4000
10. Medina 5-5 13.8500
11. Cleveland Heights 6-4 11.0500
12. Cleveland St. Ignatius 4-6 8.7918
13. Shaker Heights 4-6 6.1000
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Old 09-19-18, 10:17 AM
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Thanks for sharing EF. Very thorough as usual. We have the same 8 making the playoffs, but slightly different seeding.

I have to say, you sure have cooled off on your preseason prediction of the Golden Tornado. If they finish 4-6, yowza. I would be shocked if they couldn't manage a single big win down the stretch. But unfortunately for them, Ignatius will likely need 7 wins to make the playoffs. COF and Team Canada offer no harbins. Pasteur's projections are favorable to St Ignatius making the playoffs. I don't think that will happen, but we shall see.
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Old 09-19-18, 10:24 AM
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One more big game this weekend is Berea (3-1) at Amherst (4-0). There are four potential losses on Berea's schedule: Amherst, Avon Lake, Olmsted Falls, and Avon. If Berea can split those four games, they have around a 75% chance (according to Pasteur) of making the playoffs. This game is an important one for Berea, but also a scoreboard watch game for bubble teams like Jackson. St Ignatius, Fitch, and Strongsville. The Mustangs beat Berea in Week 1, so they are in a unique position where they could eventually want Berea to lose...sacrifice an L2 win for the greater good of making the playoffs.
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Old 09-19-18, 11:25 AM
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Per Tom_48, PDC, maybe CatAlum too, St. Ignatius will be lucky to win both Canuck games let alone the 4 large Catholics on their schedule.
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Old 09-19-18, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by cardzfan1234 View Post
One more big game this weekend is Berea (3-1) at Amherst (4-0). There are four potential losses on Berea's schedule: Amherst, Avon Lake, Olmsted Falls, and Avon. If Berea can split those four games, they have around a 75% chance (according to Pasteur) of making the playoffs. This game is an important one for Berea, but also a scoreboard watch game for bubble teams like Jackson. St Ignatius, Fitch, and Strongsville. The Mustangs beat Berea in Week 1, so they are in a unique position where they could eventually want Berea to lose...sacrifice an L2 win for the greater good of making the playoffs.
Even if Berea beats Amherst and Olmsted Falls and finishes 7-3, they will be between 17.9 to 18.5. Barring a complete collapse from both Hudson and Canton Central Catholic, Strongsville at 7-3 will still finish ahead.

Strongsville should be rooting for Berea to finish with the same record as the Mustangs ... whether that is 7-3, 8-2 or 9-1.
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Old 09-19-18, 01:26 PM
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Hudson could finish 4 6.
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Old 09-19-18, 09:04 PM
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Strongsville should be rooting for Berea to finish with the same record as the Mustangs ... whether that is 7-3, 8-2 or 9-1.

Yes that’s true. I watched Strongsville Friday. 7-3 is best case scenario. But my point was that if Berea finds themselves 7-2 heading into Week 10, the Mustangs will be rooting against the Level 2 points.
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Old 09-19-18, 10:56 PM
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Originally Posted by brian1227 View Post
Hudson could finish 4 6.
4-6 out of Hudson actually works in Strongsville's favor. In collapse, I was saying 2-8.
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  #28  
Old 09-19-18, 10:57 PM
SVillegrad SVillegrad is offline
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Originally Posted by cardzfan1234 View Post
Yes that’s true. I watched Strongsville Friday. 7-3 is best case scenario. But my point was that if Berea finds themselves 7-2 heading into Week 10, the Mustangs will be rooting against the Level 2 points.
Of course. Because that would mean 7-3 vs. 7-3.
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  #29  
Old 09-20-18, 11:33 AM
eucwrestler eucwrestler is offline
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For Cleveland Heights, what if they beat Lorain and Maple Heights who would both be 8-2, if Maple loses to Lorain.
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  #30  
Old 09-20-18, 12:16 PM
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cardzfan1234 cardzfan1234 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eucwrestler View Post
For Cleveland Heights, what if they beat Lorain and Maple Heights who would both be 8-2, if Maple loses to Lorain.
If Heights wins out, I have them at 22.85...easily in the playoffs.
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