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  #1  
Old 10-20-14, 10:12 AM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is offline
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Vamps REGION 2 HARBIN PROJECTIONS

Yes, I broke down and did it. It was killing me so I got the pencils sharpened and went at to the wee hours last night....

Who is in so far? Look, I know what mathematically in means but there are teams in that may not be officially mathematically in. While some say anything can happen well, that is not necessarily true. Upsets do occur but we still need to be realistic....

IN: Wayne, Centerville, Lakota East, Moeller, St.Xavier, Coffman, and Pick-Central

Win 1 more and IN: Springboro and Darby

Win out and IN [this does not mean these teams have to win out to make it but they would definitely be in if they win out] : Miamisburg, Elder, and Gahanna Lincoln.

Win out and looking good: Colerain and Lakota West....

V2S REGION 2 HARBIN PROJECTIONS: I'm only listing the teams that I feel have some chance at qualifying...

01 Huber Heights Wayne (10-0) : 38.289
02 St. Xavier (8-2) __________ : 38.181
03 Pickerington Central (10-0) _ : 36.297
04 Dublin Coffman (10-0) _____ : 34.582
05 Centerville (9-1) __________ : 31.710 [Wayne -4]
06 Lakota East (9-1) _________ : 31.457
07 Moeller (7-3) _____________ : 31.300 [St.Ed's -4]
08 Springboro (9-1) __________ : 31.050
09 Hilliard Darby (9-1) ________ : 30.400
10 Elder (7-3) _______________ : 26.955
11 Colerain (7-3) ____________ : 22.250
12 Hilliard Davidson (6-4) _____ : 21.758
13 Miamisburg (8-2) __________ : 21.450 [Springboro -6]
14 Mason (8-2) _____________ : 20.607
15 Central Crossing (7-3) _____ : 19.100
16 Gahanna Lincoln (6-4) _____ : 17.150 [Pick-North -1, Pick-Cent -4]
-----------------------------------------------

xx Westerville South (6-4) ____ : 16.450
xx Lancaster (7-3) ___________ : 16.400
xx Lakota West (5-5) ________ : 16.350 [Lakota East -1]
xx Lebanon (5-5) ____________ : 14.900 [Springboro -6]
xx Sycamore (5-5) ___________ : 10.200 [Colerain -9, Mason -5]

Now, my system is 83% accurate in projecting games which means no way the Harbins will end up like this but it is a way to determine what teams need to do to qualify or host a week 11 game...

Wayne... win out and host
Wayne 9-1 : 31.822 [Centerville] will need some help to host

St.Xavier has two tough games remaining. They are projected to beat Iggy by 7 and Louisville X by 16
St.Xavier 7-3 : 33.945 [Iggy] would still host

Pickerington Central... win out and host
Pick-Central 9-1 : 31.626 [Gahanna] would need help to host

Coffman... win out and host
Coffman 9-1 : 28.831 [Olentangy Liberty] Coffman is projected to win that game by 10

Centerville... win out and host / lose to Wayne would need help to host
Centerville 10-0 : 38.118

Lakota East... win out would need help to host
Lakota East 8-2 : 27.575 [Lakota West]
Lakota East 7-3 : 24.345 [Lakota West/Middletown] projected to beat Middletown by 12

Moeller... win out and host / lose 1 and would need help
Moeller 8-2 : 35.500
Moeller 6-4 : 27.400 [St.Ed's/Trinity] Moe is projected to beat Trinity KY by 9

Springboro... win out and would need help to host
Springboro 8-2 : 25.500 [Miamisburg]
Springboro 8-2 : 27.450 [Lebanon] projected to beat Lebanon by 7
Springboro 7-3 : 21.900 [Miamisburg,Lebanon] would need help to make playoffs

Darby... win out and would need help to host
Darby 8-2 : 24.350 [Westerville Central] Darby projected to win by just 1 point...
Darby 7-3 : 20.600 [Westerville Central, Bradley] on bubble... projected to beat Bradley by 15

Elder... win out and would need lots of help to host
Elder 6-4 : 21.406 [LaSalle] on good side of the bubble ... projected to beat LaSalle by 2
Elder 6-4 : 21.915 [Highlands] on good side of the bubble ... projected to beat Highlands by 13
Elder 5-5 : 16.366 [LaSalle,Highlands] ... on bad side of bubble

Colerain... win out and looks good, good side of the bubble
Colerain 6-4 : 18.400 [Sycamore] good side of the bubble / projected to win by 9

Davidson... good side of bubble even if they lose to Marysville

Miamisburg... on good side of the bubble, beat Springboro and IN
Miamisburg 9-1 : 27.050

Mason... win out and on good side of the bubble
Mason 7-3 : 16.724 (Sycamore) on the bubble / projected to beat Sycamore by 5

Central Crossing... win out and on the bubble
Central Crossing 6-4 : 16.050 [Marysville] on bad side of bubble. Projected to beat Marysville by 7

Gahanna Lincoln... win out and in / beat Pick-N and on good side of the bubble / beat Pick-C and IN / lose out on the bubble
Gahanna Lincoln 7-3 : 20.400 [Pick-Central] beating Pick-N
Gahanna Lincoln 7-3 : 23.550 [Pick-North] beating Pick-C
Gahanna Lincoln 8-2 : 26.800

Westerville South... win out and on bad side of the bubble

Lancaster... win out and on bad side of the bubble

Lakota West... win out and on good side of the bubble, lose 1 and on bad side of the bubble
Lakota West 6-4 : 22.100
Lakota West 5-5 : 18.350 [Fairfield] beat Lakota East / good side of the bubble

Lebanon... win out and on good side of the bubble
Lebanon 6-4 : 20.500
Lebanon 5-5 : 16.300 [Xenia] beating Springboro ... bad side of the bubble

Sycamore... win out and on good side of bubble
Sycamore 7-3: 19.650
Sycamore 6-4: 15.150 [Colerain] beating Mason ... bad side of the bubble
Sycamore 6-4 : 14.7000 [Mason] beating Colerain ... bad side of the bubble

Last edited by vamp2syd; 10-20-14 at 11:19 AM.
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  #2  
Old 10-20-14, 10:19 AM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Looks pretty close to what I have. Only exception is Elder, as I have them losing to LaSalle and sliding to #13/#14.

Also I have Lancaster getting up to 17, with Gahanna only in the 16s.
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  #3  
Old 10-20-14, 10:20 AM
FBfan96 FBfan96 is offline
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Awesome, this is what I have been looking for. Definitely an interesting playoff scenario!!
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  #4  
Old 10-20-14, 10:28 AM
The Myth The Myth is offline
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This would be a dream scenario for Mason. I really hope Vamps is correct which he usually is!
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  #5  
Old 10-20-14, 11:32 AM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
Looks pretty close to what I have. Only exception is Elder, as I have them losing to LaSalle and sliding to #13/#14.

Also I have Lancaster getting up to 17, with Gahanna only in the 16s.
There were quite a few L1 and L2 games where my system projected one team to win by a point or 2. Lot of swing way. I also used a L2 divisor of 99 for Centerville as I feel that Glenbard North will not make the playoffs keeping them from playing a 10th game....

Elder scares me... I do not want them to slide down and have to make the trip up north to Huber Heights in week 11.

Gahanna/Lancaster

Logan 5-5
Canal Win 1-9
Pick-N 5-5
Groveport 2-8
Reynoldsburg 3-7
Grove City 2-8
Newark 2-8
Upper Arlington 5-5
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  #6  
Old 10-20-14, 01:30 PM
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CardinalsFan CardinalsFan is offline
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You know, you'd think a full grown man wouldn't be as excited as I am every year when I see those magic words:

Vamps REGION 2 HARBIN PROJECTIONS

But I am. Every. Single. Year.

Just as a cross reference, Vamps and Drew Pasteur agree on all 16 teams, but only agree on 5 of the seedings (Wayne, Darby, Centerville, Davidson & Lakota East).

I like Vamps much better. All 3 GCL teams are in the same POD as are the 3 GMC teams. Colerain would have to beat East AT East and then likely battle Mason, if Pick Central is as soft as some on here would have you believe.

Honestly, this setup is so much better than the 8 team region, it's not even close. Now I know why the NCAA Men's Basketball tourny has, what, 72 teams in it, or something? Just let them all in I say!!!

Nice works Vamps, as always.

-CardinalsFan
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  #7  
Old 10-20-14, 01:37 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CardinalsFan View Post
You know, you'd think a full grown man wouldn't be as excited as I am every year when I see those magic words:

Vamps REGION 2 HARBIN PROJECTIONS

But I am. Every. Single. Year.

Just as a cross reference, Vamps and Drew Pasteur agree on all 16 teams, but only agree on 5 of the seedings (Wayne, Darby, Centerville, Davidson & Lakota East).

I like Vamps much better. All 3 GCL teams are in the same POD as are the 3 GMC teams. Colerain would have to beat East AT East and then likely battle Mason, if Pick Central is as soft as some on here would have you believe.

Honestly, this setup is so much better than the 8 team region, it's not even close. Now I know why the NCAA Men's Basketball tourny has, what, 72 teams in it, or something? Just let them all in I say!!!

Nice works Vamps, as always.

-CardinalsFan
I like the set up better and I hope that it turns out exactly the way that my system picked it as Wayne would avoid a GCL South team all the way up to the state semi finals!!!!!
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  #8  
Old 10-20-14, 02:21 PM
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kdogg kdogg is offline
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Hay Vamps;

Where does X slide to if they lose both games to Iggy & Louisville St. X.

Just curious and thanks in advance.
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  #9  
Old 10-20-14, 02:30 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kdogg View Post
Hay Vamps;

Where does X slide to if they lose both games to Iggy & Louisville St. X.

Just curious and thanks in advance.
St. Xavier 6-4 : 29.356 [Iggy, Louisv-X]
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  #10  
Old 10-20-14, 09:52 PM
WrestlingIsMyLife WrestlingIsMyLife is offline
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Nice
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  #11  
Old 10-20-14, 10:03 PM
MoeBeturLojik MoeBeturLojik is offline
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Here's what I got from Drew Pasteur's site with a little analysis:
http://www.fantastic50.net/Ohio_Region_02.php

.......................CURRENT...PROJECTED......%C HANCE
TEAM....................RECORD..FINAL...PNTS...BER TH.HOME.......REMAINING GAMES.................COMMENTS
1) Wayne ................(8-0).(10-0)...39.51..100%..100%....(BvrCrk w35, Cntrvl w5).......(0W-0% #5, 1W-37% #4, 2W-62% #1)
2) Pick Central..........(8-0).(10-0)...35.06..100%...99%....(Gvpt-Mdsn w33, Lincoln w6)...(0W-0% #8, 1W-37% #6, 2W-63% #2)
3) Dublin Coffman .......(8-0).(10-0)...34.58..100%...98%....(Liberty w8, UprArlgtn w27)...(0W-1% #9, 1W-34% #7, 2W-65% #3)
4) St Xavier.............(6-2)..(7-3)...31.30..100%...94%....(Iggy L2, Lou.St.X OOS).......(0W=25% #8, 1W=48% #4, 2W=27% #2)
5) Centerville...........(8-0)..(9-1)...30.85..100%...99%....(Sprgfld w27, Wayne L5).......(0W-2% #6, 1W-61% #4, 2W-36% #1)
6) Lakota East...........(7-1)..(9-1)...30.80..100%...89%....(Mdltwn w21, Lakota.W w9).....(0W-3% #9, 1W-33% #8, 2W-65% #9)
7) Springboro............(7-1)..(9-1)...30.10..100%...59%....(Miamisbg w5, Lebnn w15)......(0W-7% #12, 1W-43% #9, 2W-50% #6)
8) Moeller...............(6-2)..(7-3)...28.55..100%...79%....(Eds L1, Lou.Trinity OOS).....(0W-23% #9, 1W-49% #7, 2W-28% #4)
9) Hilliard Darby........(7-1)..(8-2)...23.80...99%...44%....(Wstrvl.C L1, Bradley w22)....(0W-5% #13, 1W-53% #9, 2W-42% #6)
10) Colerain.............(5-3)..(7-3)...22.30...99%..........(Sycmre w19, OakHills w28)....(0W-0% #16, 1W-14% #15, 2W-85% #11)
11) Miamisburg...........(7-1)..(8-2)...22.15..100%...30%....(Sprgboro L5, W.Carrltn W43)..(0W-0%, 1W-62% #11, 2W-38% #8)
12) Hilliard Davidson....(4-4)..(6-4)...21.15...96%..........(Wrthngtn w32, Marysvl w10)...(0W-0% #15, 1W-28% #15, 2W-72% #12)
13) Mason................(6-2)..(8-2)...20.66...87%..........(Hmltn w34, Sycamore w14).....(0W-0%, 1W-20% 38%, 2W-80% #13)
14) Gahanna Lincoln......(6-2)..(7-3)...20.40...95%....7%....(Pick.N w5, Pick.C L6)........(0W-24% 80% #16, 1W-53% #13, 2W-23% #9)
15) Elder................(5-3)..(6-4)...20.08...60%....1%....(Hghlnds OOS, LSalle L6)......(0W-40% 2%, 1W-47% #14, 2W-13% #10)
16) Central Crossing.....(5-3)..(7-3)...19.10...58%..........(Marysvl w7, Westlnd w13).....(0W-7% 1%, 1W-41% 24%, 2W-52% 93% #15)
------------------------
17) Westerville South....(4-4)..(6-4)...17.75...44%..........(Jerome w11, Wstrvl.N w24)....(0W-2% out, 1W-28% 7%, 2W-71% 59% #16)
18) Lakota West..........(4-4)..(5-5)...16.35...35%..........(Fairfld W7, Lakota.E L9).....(0W-24% out, 1W-57% 29%, 2W-19% #12)
19) Lancaster............(5-3)..(7-3)...15.90....9%..........(GroveCity w13, Newark w16)...(0W-4% out, 1W-31% 1%, 2W-65% 14%)
20) Lebanon..............(4-4)..(5-5)...14.90...11%..........(Xenia W3, Sprgboro L15)......(0W-34% out, 1W-56% 1%, 2W-11% 96% #14)
21) Sycamore.............(5-3)..(5-5)...10.25....3%..........(Colerain L19, Mason L14).....(0W-71% out, 1W-27% 3%, 2W-2% #13)

Dropped out: Northmont

Key:
(1W-47% 80% #15): The propability of winning 1 of their remaining games is 47%. If they do so, they have an 80% of making the

playoffs and would likely get a #15 seed.
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  #12  
Old 10-20-14, 10:05 PM
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Elks48 Elks48 is offline
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How much help does Centerville need to host if they lose to Wayne?
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  #13  
Old 10-20-14, 10:21 PM
vamp2syd vamp2syd is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elks48 View Post
How much help does Centerville need to host if they lose to Wayne?
I think they look very good at hosting... and would probably be a lock if Westerville Central defeats Darby.
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  #14  
Old 10-21-14, 07:58 AM
CardSharp CardSharp is offline
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Joe Who???

Well done Vamps & Thanks... looks like your Warriors are in the drivers seat this year!
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  #15  
Old 10-21-14, 10:34 AM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elks48 View Post
How much help does Centerville need to host if they lose to Wayne?
Not much. Based on most projections they're looking at 7th at worst.
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