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Old 07-16-18, 12:56 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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  #3182  
Old 07-16-18, 01:59 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
After falling about 20 games under .500 in May, the Reds are something like 36-25, which is strong. But still, after 96 games, we're 10 below .500 and 10 games out of wild card, with 8 teams ahead of us. So I wouldn't be a buyer at the deadline, no trade targets. Illogical to give up prospects for a rental.

Thus, I logically understand why you target the 2 Mets. They would be under control; not a rental. The simple fact is that the Mets would possibly trade DeGrom, but will certainly not trade Syndergaard. And you've overvalued marginal Reds prospects to try to make the deal work.

Having said that, the Reds 8 position players are really good, a couple bench pieces are decent, and the bullpen is pretty good. The Reds are 2-3 pieces shy of being a really strong team and playoff contender next year.

Unfortunately, those 2-3 pieces are the top 2-3 spots in the rotation. The guys we need for those spots as FA would be too expensive almost certainly. So we just have to stay the course with Castillo, Mahle, Disco, etc and hope they progress. Might be smarter to re-sign Scooter, keep the core positional guys intact, and try to win a bunch of 9-7 games.
I think the Reds should pinpoint some good, but not great top of the rotation guys on some of the not so great teams. Why I say this is because of a guy like Charlie Morton of the Astros. He was an average to below average pitcher for the Pirates for years. Decent ERA, but never won much. Was it because he was just on a bad team? The Reds offensively can carry not great pitchers, but we need at least 6-7 innings, not the 5 we get from most of our starters now. The Astros have rejuvenated Justin Verlander, and made a really good pitcher out of Charlie Morton. Neither of whom I would consider #1 type starters, especially 2 years ago. Can we go find guys like that?
  #3183  
Old 07-16-18, 03:48 PM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I think the Reds should pinpoint some good, but not great top of the rotation guys on some of the not so great teams. Why I say this is because of a guy like Charlie Morton of the Astros. He was an average to below average pitcher for the Pirates for years. Decent ERA, but never won much. Was it because he was just on a bad team? The Reds offensively can carry not great pitchers, but we need at least 6-7 innings, not the 5 we get from most of our starters now. The Astros have rejuvenated Justin Verlander, and made a really good pitcher out of Charlie Morton. Neither of whom I would consider #1 type starters, especially 2 years ago. Can we go find guys like that?
If you don't consider Justin Verlander to be a #1 starter, then I can't help you. He is clearly a #1 by just about everyone else's standards, and costs $28M this year. A true ace in every way, and clearly out of the Reds budget. And you ask if "Can we go find guys like that?".

Sure. The All Star game is tomorrow. Get a flight to Washington and sign up Verlander, Scherzer, Sale and a couple others. Easy...
  #3184  
Old 07-16-18, 03:52 PM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Charlie Morton, however, is a UFA this off-season, and is making $7M. That's a guy you could talk to. However, he is 34, and probably looking for a lot more $$ after having a career year and a half with Houston...
  #3185  
Old 07-16-18, 10:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I think the Reds should pinpoint some good, but not great top of the rotation guys on some of the not so great teams. Why I say this is because of a guy like Charlie Morton of the Astros. He was an average to below average pitcher for the Pirates for years. Decent ERA, but never won much. Was it because he was just on a bad team? The Reds offensively can carry not great pitchers, but we need at least 6-7 innings, not the 5 we get from most of our starters now. The Astros have rejuvenated Justin Verlander, and made a really good pitcher out of Charlie Morton. Neither of whom I would consider #1 type starters, especially 2 years ago. Can we go find guys like that?
Wtf?
  #3186  
Old 07-17-18, 08:00 AM
Dale Cooper Dale Cooper is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
If you don't consider Justin Verlander to be a #1 starter, then I can't help you. He is clearly a #1 by just about everyone else's standards, and costs $28M this year. A true ace in every way, and clearly out of the Reds budget. And you ask if "Can we go find guys like that?".

Sure. The All Star game is tomorrow. Get a flight to Washington and sign up Verlander, Scherzer, Sale and a couple others. Easy...
Thatís sounds like the logic of every caller thatís ever called into Lance McAllisterís show. They all have the same concept of $ as 3 yr old.
  #3187  
Old 07-17-18, 09:07 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
If you don't consider Justin Verlander to be a #1 starter, then I can't help you. He is clearly a #1 by just about everyone else's standards, and costs $28M this year. A true ace in every way, and clearly out of the Reds budget. And you ask if "Can we go find guys like that?".

Sure. The All Star game is tomorrow. Get a flight to Washington and sign up Verlander, Scherzer, Sale and a couple others. Easy...
When Verlander came to Houston, he was not a #1 starter. He was nearly done in Detroit, he was at best their #3/#4 starter. He's been revitalized in Houston. But does it have to do with him, or his team? Does the Astros lineup and defense make average pitchers look great? Could the Reds be that way as well?
Now I'll say the Reds are not as good defensively as they were 2-3 years ago. When you lose Phillips and Cozart up the middle, you're not going to be as good. Peraza and Gennett have played better, they really have. But the Reds offensive lineup cures alot of ills. I'm not sure our starting pitching has improved that much, but we are just scoring runs like crazy now.

And you are correct, there is now way we sign a guy to a Verlander like contract, Morton, heck yes.
  #3188  
Old 07-17-18, 10:24 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
Charlie Morton, however, is a UFA this off-season, and is making $7M. That's a guy you could talk to. However, he is 34, and probably looking for a lot more $$ after having a career year and a half with Houston...
I don't know that you'll see the market for pitchers as in the past. Teams are scared to death to sign pitchers to big deals. The LA Dodgers will never get out of Clayton Kershaw what they are paying him. Yu Darvish looks like an epic fail for the Cubs so far. Hopefully we can find some a few in that mid level range.
  #3189  
Old 07-17-18, 10:26 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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In Detroit, Verlander led the team in:
ERA in both 2016 and 2017
Inning pitched in both 2016 and 2017
Win-loss record since you care about that, both 2016 and 2017
WHIP in 2016 and 2nd best WHIP in 2017

For all MLB pitchers he:
was top 10 ERA in 2016, top 15 ERA in 2017
was top 5 in both 2016 and 2017 in innings pitched
was top 20 win-loss record in 2016, top 20 in 2017
was top 3 WHIP in 2016, top 15 WHIP in 2017
had the best WAR in 2016, #3 in 2017

So yeah, Verlander was a #1 when he came to Houston. He was definitely not nearly done in Detroit or their #3/#4 pitcher. He was clearly their best both years. Given he was lights out in both Detroit and Houston, it's obvious more credit to him than the team.
  #3190  
Old 07-17-18, 10:27 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Ok, thoughts on the first half? Many on this board bolted after the first month of the season and have slowly crept back since the club is playing better.
Has progress been made?
Are you happy with the progress?
What are a couple of things you'd like to see in the 2nd half?
  #3191  
Old 07-17-18, 10:30 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
In Detroit, Verlander led the team in:
ERA in both 2016 and 2017
Inning pitched in both 2016 and 2017
Win-loss record since you care about that, both 2016 and 2017
WHIP in 2016 and 2nd best WHIP in 2017

For all MLB pitchers he:
was top 10 ERA in 2016, top 15 ERA in 2017
was top 5 in both 2016 and 2017 in innings pitched
was top 20 win-loss record in 2016, top 20 in 2017
was top 3 WHIP in 2016, top 15 WHIP in 2017
had the best WAR in 2016, #3 in 2017

So yeah, Verlander was a #1 when he came to Houston. He was definitely not nearly done in Detroit or their #3/#4 pitcher. He was clearly their best both years. Given he was lights out in both Detroit and Houston, it's obvious more credit to him than the team.
I stand corrected, thank you. But I don't think there was anyway we saw him having the success in Houston that he's had.
  #3192  
Old 07-17-18, 11:30 AM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I stand corrected, thank you. But I don't think there was anyway we saw him having the success in Houston that he's had.
I did. Houston obviously did, that's why they acquired him. Most people did. Just not you.

Here is the scenario:
This pitcher, for the last 10 years, has annually been in the top 10 in the AL in wins, strikeouts, ERA while pitching for a so-so team. Former Cy Young winner and league MVP. 6 time all star. What do we suppose will happen when we put him on a team with great young position players and a couple other decent guys in the rotation?

Answer: he will be great. and win the MVP in the playoffs. duh, I did not see that coming. you are too much.
  #3193  
Old 07-17-18, 12:06 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I stand corrected, thank you. But I don't think there was anyway we saw him having the success in Houston that he's had.
Based on what exactly? The stats he had for a lousy Tigers team certainly point to him having success in Houston. Now if you're trying to say they didn't bring him in to be a #1 - that's fair since they already had a few solid starting pitchers, but there's nothing that made anyone think - man he won't be any good down there.
  #3194  
Old 07-17-18, 12:12 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
Ok, thoughts on the first half? Many on this board bolted after the first month of the season and have slowly crept back since the club is playing better.
Has progress been made?
Are you happy with the progress?
What are a couple of things you'd like to see in the 2nd half?
Started off lousy and had several injuries. Have played much better of late but they'll still finish 4th or worse in the division, nowhere close to the playoffs which isn't a surprise. Now they may end up better than many on here predicted record wise. Goal should be to finish .500 or better. That would show some progress and isn't anything too far from reach.
  #3195  
Old 07-17-18, 12:31 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is online now
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Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
Started off lousy and had several injuries. Have played much better of late but they'll still finish 4th or worse in the division, nowhere close to the playoffs which isn't a surprise. Now they may end up better than many on here predicted record wise. Goal should be to finish .500 or better. That would show some progress and isn't anything too far from reach.
You think this team can get to 81 wins?

The 2nd Wild Card last year had 87 wins. If you think this team can get to 81 then they should be buyers and go for WC.

Last edited by Indiandad; 07-17-18 at 12:47 PM..
  #3196  
Old 07-17-18, 12:51 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
I did. Houston obviously did, that's why they acquired him. Most people did. Just not you.

Here is the scenario:
This pitcher, for the last 10 years, has annually been in the top 10 in the AL in wins, strikeouts, ERA while pitching for a so-so team. Former Cy Young winner and league MVP. 6 time all star. What do we suppose will happen when we put him on a team with great young position players and a couple other decent guys in the rotation?

Answer: he will be great. and win the MVP in the playoffs. duh, I did not see that coming. you are too much.
For 28 mill a year, I wouldn't have taken him if the Tigers had given him to us in '16. Now he's definitely played up to the contract, but I feel it's a huge risk.
  #3197  
Old 07-17-18, 12:57 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
You think this team can get to 81 wins?

The 2nd Wild Card last year had 87 wins. If you think this team can get to 81 then they should be buyers and go for WC.
66 games left - they finish 33-33 that's 76 wins. I would guess they end up around there (75-78 wins). They started 8-27 and have been 35-26 since. 38-28 puts them at 81 wins. That should be the goal.

They absolutely should not be buyers at the deadline. You don't suddenly become buyers because you think you have a chance at a 1-game Wild Card. If anything stand pat - flip Harvey for some prospects, listen to offers for Scooter but keep him unless you're blown away and listen to offers for Billy. If the Reds finish anywhere close to 80 wins it'll be a successful season considering where they started and how bad the team was expected to be.
  #3198  
Old 07-17-18, 03:26 PM
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Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
Based on what exactly? The stats he had for a lousy Tigers team certainly point to him having success in Houston. Now if you're trying to say they didn't bring him in to be a #1 - that's fair since they already had a few solid starting pitchers, but there's nothing that made anyone think - man he won't be any good down there.
He's getting paid like a #1, that's for sure.
  #3199  
Old 07-17-18, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
66 games left - they finish 33-33 that's 76 wins. I would guess they end up around there (75-78 wins). They started 8-27 and have been 35-26 since. 38-28 puts them at 81 wins. That should be the goal.

They absolutely should not be buyers at the deadline. You don't suddenly become buyers because you think you have a chance at a 1-game Wild Card. If anything stand pat - flip Harvey for some prospects, listen to offers for Scooter but keep him unless you're blown away and listen to offers for Billy. If the Reds finish anywhere close to 80 wins it'll be a successful season considering where they started and how bad the team was expected to be.
There is no way this team should ever entertain being buyers. The goal is not to make the wild card playoffs in 18, mortgage the future and get set back. You get good offers for Scooter/ Iglesias/ Duvall/ Hamilton you jump on it. Jared Huges and David Hernandez may get some play as well.
If the Reds finish with 70 wins this season, it's progress considering April.
Keys to the second half...
-can Mahle, Romano, Castillo continue to improve and give us better, more consistent starts and innings
-Can Amir Garrett become a back end bull pen guy, consistently
-Robert Stephenson/ Cody Reed, what are you going to do with them.
-Harvey's going to be gone soon, do we just flip Homer in that spot and move forward?
  #3200  
Old 07-17-18, 04:02 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is online now
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
There is no way this team should ever entertain being buyers. The goal is not to make the wild card playoffs in 18, mortgage the future and get set back. You get good offers for Scooter/ Iglesias/ Duvall/ Hamilton you jump on it. Jared Huges and David Hernandez may get some play as well.
If the Reds finish with 70 wins this season, it's progress considering April.
Keys to the second half...
-can Mahle, Romano, Castillo continue to improve and give us better, more consistent starts and innings
-Can Amir Garrett become a back end bull pen guy, consistently
-Robert Stephenson/ Cody Reed, what are you going to do with them.
-Harvey's going to be gone soon, do we just flip Homer in that spot and move forward?
This plan will all but guarantee an exodus of what's left of the fan base.
  #3201  
Old 07-17-18, 05:00 PM
Dale Cooper Dale Cooper is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
This plan will all but guarantee an exodus of what's left of the fan base.
Then the fans are idiots. Who gives a rat’s azz about playing for a WC now? Gennet’s value will never be higher. Duvall and Hamilton are serviceable big Leaguers, but nobody you can build a team around.

The Reds should be in playoff contention in 2020, with a chance to win big in ‘21. It’s frustrating the avg fan can’t see a bigger picture, makes me realize how dumb the avg person is in general.
  #3202  
Old 07-17-18, 06:20 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is online now
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Originally Posted by Dale Cooper View Post
Then the fans are idiots. Who gives a ratís azz about playing for a WC now? Gennetís value will never be higher. Duvall and Hamilton are serviceable big Leaguers, but nobody you can build a team around.

The Reds should be in playoff contention in 2020, with a chance to win big in Ď21. Itís frustrating the avg fan canít see a bigger picture, makes me realize how dumb the avg person is in general.
Who will be the everyday 8 in 2021 when this team wins big? Who will be the pitchers?
  #3203  
Old 07-17-18, 06:48 PM
Dale Cooper Dale Cooper is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Who will be the everyday 8 in 2021 when this team wins big? Who will be the pitchers?
No team could tell you who their starting 8 will be in 3 years. Votto, Senzel, India, Trammel, Suarez is a good start. The staff would be Mahle, Castillo, Greene.
  #3204  
Old 07-17-18, 09:59 PM
brianwr112 brianwr112 is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
Mike Matheney, would you like the Reds to look at him as a future manager?

I would. He's done nothing but win in St. Louis, he's no nonsense and doesn't care if he ruffles feathers.
A definite NO. The guy was fired because he caused friction between the veterans and young players. Even went on record with it. The last thing a team full of young talent is a guy who thinks the veterans should be bullying the young guys.

There's not really any teams with a real need at 2B right now which has hurst Scooter's value. I don't just trade him away because he's playing at a high level. I also don't sign him long term until at least after the off season. If there's an injury between now and the deadline then his value could go up. He could also hold high value in the offseason depending what teams do.

I'm really fine with them trading anyone as long as it appears they're getting a quality return. Obviously you can't predict the future but I'd at least like to look at it on paper and say the Reds won.

Their currently sitting 25th in attendance. Right around 20,000 per game. Realistically it's probably closer to 15,000. Indiandad's remark about losing fans is the icing on the cake it terms of his baseball knowledge. Keeping guys they should've traded is why they're in this position to begin with. Frazier, Cozart, Bruce, Cute and Chapman should've been traded way before they were. Or in Cozart's case they just lost him. But remember that time Todd Frazier won the Home Run Derby?

Gramps
I know you're stoked Votto probably lost the game for the NL there
  #3205  
Old 07-18-18, 12:41 AM
Dale Cooper Dale Cooper is offline
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Originally Posted by brianwr112 View Post
A definite NO. The guy was fired because he caused friction between the veterans and young players. Even went on record with it. The last thing a team full of young talent is a guy who thinks the veterans should be bullying the young guys.

There's not really any teams with a real need at 2B right now which has hurst Scooter's value. I don't just trade him away because he's playing at a high level. I also don't sign him long term until at least after the off season. If there's an injury between now and the deadline then his value could go up. He could also hold high value in the offseason depending what teams do.

I'm really fine with them trading anyone as long as it appears they're getting a quality return. Obviously you can't predict the future but I'd at least like to look at it on paper and say the Reds won.

Their currently sitting 25th in attendance. Right around 20,000 per game. Realistically it's probably closer to 15,000. Indiandad's remark about losing fans is the icing on the cake it terms of his baseball knowledge. Keeping guys they should've traded is why they're in this position to begin with. Frazier, Cozart, Bruce, Cute and Chapman should've been traded way before they were. Or in Cozart's case they just lost him. But remember that time Todd Frazier won the Home Run Derby?

Gramps
I know you're stoked Votto probably lost the game for the NL there
He also indirectly ruined Josh Haderís career.
  #3206  
Old 07-18-18, 04:11 AM
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To be honest, I think the best thing the Reds can do is nothing. Bar a deal that they couldn't walk away from, they are in the driver seat on most contracts and several trade pieces have made it clear they want to stay in Cincy. I do agree they need a bonafide #1 starter and I'm not sure where that comes from at this point, but I think the Reds are in a good position to ask a very high price for any trade pieces and be fine if no one bites.
  #3207  
Old 07-18-18, 08:39 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
This plan will all but guarantee an exodus of what's left of the fan base.
I hope the powers that be doesn't consider what the fan base feels as to how to construct a team.
You win, people come to games. It's really as simple as that. Fans will cheer a player for a career year, then bury them the next year if they go back to the stats on their baseball card. You simply can't run your team that way.
  #3208  
Old 07-18-18, 08:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Who will be the everyday 8 in 2021 when this team wins big? Who will be the pitchers?
My lineup in 2021 - based on players in our system today

1B Votto
2B Senzel
SS Peraza
3B Suarez
C Barnhart
LF India
CF Trammel
RF Winker

SP Mahle
SP Greene
SP Romano
SP ???
SP ???

It's really hard to project pitching. I just think this team will go get some mid level pitchers instead of developing.
  #3209  
Old 07-18-18, 10:53 AM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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For 28 mill a year, I wouldn't have taken him if the Tigers had given him to us in '16. Now he's definitely played up to the contract, but I feel it's a huge risk.
LOL. No kidding. But you were the one who named Verlander and said "how can we find guys like that?" Sounds like you have no idea what your own opinion is.
  #3210  
Old 07-18-18, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Gh0st View Post
To be honest, I think the best thing the Reds can do is nothing. Bar a deal that they couldn't walk away from, they are in the driver seat on most contracts and several trade pieces have made it clear they want to stay in Cincy. I do agree they need a bonafide #1 starter and I'm not sure where that comes from at this point, but I think the Reds are in a good position to ask a very high price for any trade pieces and be fine if no one bites.
Agreed, I said as much above. All this team needs is top 2 SP, but the price for those guys is too steep. The starting 8 is good, and under control contract-wise for the most part. Bullpen also close to what we need. trading Iglesias for prospects is dumb. I'd trade Hamilton, Hughes or Hernandez for the right deal. Hope the young SP progress and start winning in 2019.
 

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