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  #181  
Old 11-02-17, 11:11 AM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Instead of jumping to the instant reaction of "he's an idiot" like EP and Taco do, try giving some thought as to why what I said are possible and even plausible.... you know, think.


I did not say that Winker would score 100 runs more than Billy. I said he would score 100 runs and the Reds would score 100 more runs as a team with Winker leading off and Hamilton pinch running. Having Hamilton as the 4th outfielder and Peraza as the utility infielder makes the offense much better. Whether it is Cozart at SS and Suarez at 3rd or it is Suarez at SS and Senzel at 3rd it is a better lineup than with Peraza in it. Can Hamilton pinch run for an infielder not named Votto? Absolutely. Just like he can pinch run for an outfielder. That's 8 potentials to swing the bat for him then let him run. The Versatility of multiple players defensively allows that to happen.
Having Winker and his high contact, line drive hitting bat at the top of the lineup means the lower 3rd (Billy pinch running) will score far more than they did with Billy batting lead off.

Billy would face many more relievers on the mound when he pinch runs. Relievers are generally much worse at holding runners. Billy will see his SB numbers go up. His runs scored will go up with it. The teams runs scored will also go up.
I did think and posted numbers showing you the foolishness of your statements.

For the record, I have posted twice that I agree with Winker in the OF and leading off, and Billy as 4th OF. But I dispute your claim that by doing this it is not plausible to expect the Reds as a team to increase their runs scored by 100. I explained why.

Assuming that Winker plays 150 plus games as leadoff, maintains his 2017 OBP rate (yet to be proven), he could score 100 runs. That is +15 over Billy.

But expecting Billy to score the other 85 as a pinch runner is a pure dream. You did not answer my questions about that. Re-read that and answer it.
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  #182  
Old 11-02-17, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
First of all, it is unlikely that Billy pinch runs in 162 games. Many games the situation does not present itself in the 7/8/9th inning. There are blowout games, there are games where nobody gets on base in 7/8/9, there are games when Votto or Peraza get on base and you aren't pulling them out. So let's knock 162 back to something like 130, which is still a stretch.

But for the sake of argument, I'll allow the stupid assumption that Billy gets on base 162 times in 162 games. And I'll even allow the very flawed thinking that Billy steals 80 bases in 162 times on base. He stole far fewer this year with more times on base. 100 runs/162 times on base is 61.7%. Are you saying the Reds are going to magically bat .617 with Billy in scoring position to knock him in? Wow, that is exciting!
Re-posting for Indiandad. Do we think the Reds bat .617 when Billy pinch-runs and gets in scoring position?
  #183  
Old 11-02-17, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Sorry, I was excited. 5.27 r/g would be the highest total for an NL team since 2008. Totally agree!
Reposting for indiandad. Do you really think projecting the Reds having the highest Runs per game average by an NL team in a decade is realistic by leading off Winker and pinch running Hamilton?
  #184  
Old 11-02-17, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
So are we going 4 OFs in 2018, softball style?
Schebler would be the 4th outfield, coming off the bench. Winker would lead off and play right field, Duval in left and Billy in center.
  #185  
Old 11-02-17, 04:01 PM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
I did think and posted numbers showing you the foolishness of your statements.

For the record, I have posted twice that I agree with Winker in the OF and leading off, and Billy as 4th OF. But I dispute your claim that by doing this it is not plausible to expect the Reds as a team to increase their runs scored by 100. I explained why.

Assuming that Winker plays 150 plus games as leadoff, maintains his 2017 OBP rate (yet to be proven), he could score 100 runs. That is +15 over Billy.

But expecting Billy to score the other 85 as a pinch runner is a pure dream. You did not answer my questions about that. Re-read that and answer it.
Billy would have to score even more than 85 as a pinch runner. He would have to score the 85 he scored last year PLUS what the guys that he replaced on the bases would have scored anyway -- ALL in a very limited role.

I agree that, while this might be a possibility as a lineup change, to say the Reds as a team would score 100 more runs by doing this just doesn't measure up when the entire picture is analyzed.

Nice idea to surmise, though. Thanks, IndianDad, for bringing it up.

Last edited by Monclova Steve; 11-02-17 at 04:12 PM..
  #186  
Old 11-02-17, 07:26 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
Re-posting for Indiandad. Do we think the Reds bat .617 when Billy pinch-runs and gets in scoring position?
Of course they don't. They don't have to.
Runner on 2nd nobody out, batter strikes out. 0-1
Batter 2 pops out. 0-2
Batter 3 single. Run scores

1-3 wRISP. .333 not .617 same result as hit on first batter.

They are a whole myriad of ways to score with out a hit. All of them score a run and drop the RISP average down.
  #187  
Old 11-02-17, 07:29 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Reposting for indiandad. Do you really think projecting the Reds having the highest Runs per game average by an NL team in a decade is realistic by leading off Winker and pinch running Hamilton?
You're leaving out a couple of key points... Senzel plays everyday as well and Peraza does not.

Peraza and Hamilton were terrible this year. Add in the pitcher and a third of your lineup couldn't get on base (or drive in a run).
  #188  
Old 11-02-17, 07:37 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by Monclova Steve View Post
Billy would have to score even more than 85 as a pinch runner. He would have to score the 85 he scored last year PLUS what the guys that he replaced on the bases would have scored anyway -- ALL in a very limited role.

I agree that, while this might be a possibility as a lineup change, to say the Reds as a team would score 100 more runs by doing this just doesn't measure up when the entire picture is analyzed.

Nice idea to surmise, though. Thanks, IndianDad, for bringing it up.
Your missing another key conponent.... Winker driving in runs from the leadoff, something Billy could not do.
Further, Billy could score from first on a double, Barnhart (8 spot) could not. Barnhart could not get himself into scoring position.

The bottom third of the Reds lineup was so bad that if the first 6 didn't score a bunch they had no chance.

I'd take my chances with Senzel over Peraza and Winker over Hamilton. That leaves you two speed guys to pinch run and defend with while your big bats get at bats.

For those who say he would not pinch run in every game, That would be on Price. Why would you not use that weapon as often as possible?

Steve, I appreciate your civil disagreement.
  #189  
Old 11-02-17, 07:42 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I fail to see any logic in this argument. Now let's also look at this...what is Billy's strength. If he had one thing that he does really well, what is it?? He's been nominated for gold gloves since he came on the scene. So you want to take him OFF the field, where playing defense is what he does best, so you can maybe...MAYBE, pinch run him a few games a week? Now maybe in a championship team with 3 great, proven outfielders you could use Billy this way, but we don't have that. He's our best centerfielder, and will continue to be so.
Billy's strength? He runs the bases extremely well and plays excellent defense. Pinch running eliminates his glaring weakness.... hitting.

Billy's glove in center field does not help the pitching as much as you think. Throwing strikes does more than Billy's glove. The Reds were 31st in walks allowed this year. All the gold gloves in baseball doesn't keep walks off the bases.

The Reds were league average at batting average against.
  #190  
Old 11-02-17, 07:46 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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I personally don't think we will ever find out if this scenario would produce the results I've predicted. I think Billy is traded this winter/spring. He is to expensive for the Reds.
  #191  
Old 11-02-17, 08:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
I personally don't think we will ever find out if this scenario would produce the results I've predicted. I think Billy is traded this winter/spring. He is to expensive for the Reds.
I think we can all say pretty confidently the Reds would not average 5.27 runs per game, which would be the most by an NL team in 10 years.
  #192  
Old 11-03-17, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post

The Reds were 31st in walks allowed this year. All the gold gloves in baseball doesn't keep walks off the bases.
BINGO, now this is what I can agree with. The Reds are perfectly fine offensively. As much as we bemoan Billy's batting and on base%, he's 13% of our daily batting average, taking out the pitcher.
Now he may be misplaced in the order, but he "does his job" offensively. This teams main problem is pitching, and that is being addressed.
  #193  
Old 11-03-17, 10:53 AM
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I would agree that the Reds are "fine" offensively. 8th in the NL in runs scored and OBP, 6th in OPS. And all of those key numbers would go up if Winker plays RF and Schebler is in CF for the bulk of the games, assuming Winker can play to about the same level as he did in a part time role in 2017. Perhaps they add 25 runs scored for the year (getting them into top 5), and perhaps they add .015 to their OPS, also putting them top 5 in the NL. I am in favor of that move.

For those of you (14red) that keep talking batting average, flush it down the toilet. OPS is the one true metric that correlates almost perfectly with runs scored. The top 3 teams in 2017 scoring runs (Nats, Cubs, Rockies) are the same 3 that lead the OPS category. For those who don't know, OPS is simply OBP plus Slugging %. It is not rocket science, but it is the best measure of how good an offense is.
  #194  
Old 11-03-17, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
I would agree that the Reds are "fine" offensively. 8th in the NL in runs scored and OBP, 6th in OPS. And all of those key numbers would go up if Winker plays RF and Schebler is in CF for the bulk of the games, assuming Winker can play to about the same level as he did in a part time role in 2017. Perhaps they add 25 runs scored for the year (getting them into top 5), and perhaps they add .015 to their OPS, also putting them top 5 in the NL. I am in favor of that move.

For those of you (14red) that keep talking batting average, flush it down the toilet. OPS is the one true metric that correlates almost perfectly with runs scored. The top 3 teams in 2017 scoring runs (Nats, Cubs, Rockies) are the same 3 that lead the OPS category. For those who don't know, OPS is simply OBP plus Slugging %. It is not rocket science, but it is the best measure of how good an offense is.
The offense was at the league average in runs/game. They are okay, but if your pitching staff isnít above average, your offense needs to be above average.
  #195  
Old 11-03-17, 01:32 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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By Monday, the Reds will have to decide if they want to give a free agent qualifyiing offer to Zach Cozart of $17.4 million for 2018. Then it's up to him weather he takes it or goes to the open market. Why would, or why wouldn't the Reds do this?
If they don't give him an offer...you lose him and get nothing in return.
If they offer him and he declines, the Reds can get some compensation picks in next years draft.
If they offer and he accepts, you have a shortstop for one season for a ton of money.

IMO, I don't make a qualifying offer, let him walk. Now if you can get him to come back at say $8 mill for one year or $12 mill for 2, then I'd consider it. Just realize you're bidding against everyone in baseball, but I really don't think there is much of a market for him.
  #196  
Old 11-03-17, 02:31 PM
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Cozart for $17M in 2018 is not even a decision. We've already covered this.

I posted two pages ago that $17M would make him the second highest paid SS in the MLB. Not going to happen.

Only a moron would make the offer.
If the offer was made, Cozart would be a moron to turn it down.

Moving on...
  #197  
Old 11-05-17, 11:01 AM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
I would agree that the Reds are "fine" offensively. 8th in the NL in runs scored and OBP, 6th in OPS. And all of those key numbers would go up if Winker plays RF and Schebler is in CF for the bulk of the games, assuming Winker can play to about the same level as he did in a part time role in 2017. Perhaps they add 25 runs scored for the year (getting them into top 5), and perhaps they add .015 to their OPS, also putting them top 5 in the NL. I am in favor of that move.

For those of you (14red) that keep talking batting average, flush it down the toilet. OPS is the one true metric that correlates almost perfectly with runs scored. The top 3 teams in 2017 scoring runs (Nats, Cubs, Rockies) are the same 3 that lead the OPS category. For those who don't know, OPS is simply OBP plus Slugging %. It is not rocket science, but it is the best measure of how good an offense is.
Jesse Winker's OPS dwarves Hamilton.... He would add more than 25 runs to the Reds offense just from his ability to drive guys in.
  #198  
Old 11-06-17, 08:15 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
Cozart for $17M in 2018 is not even a decision. We've already covered this.

I posted two pages ago that $17M would make him the second highest paid SS in the MLB. Not going to happen.

Only a moron would make the offer.
If the offer was made, Cozart would be a moron to turn it down.

Moving on...
Wolves...if this was an individual message between you and I, fine. But not everyone is on here everyday, and this is a decision that affects the Reds. We can look all over baseball and find similar head-scratching contracts for players. Now personally, I agree with you, this would not be a good decision for the Reds, and if Zack wants that kind of money, he needs to look elsewhere.

Is there a number that you'd be comfortable with resigning Cozart, or are you ready to just wash your hands of him completely?
  #199  
Old 11-06-17, 08:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Jesse Winker's OPS dwarves Hamilton.... He would add more than 25 runs to the Reds offense just from his ability to drive guys in.
I like Winker, but just to caution, you've seen Winker in a very, very small sample size. He has been a high OPS guy, even his days in the minors. But let's not make any promises that he's going to add alot to our offense. More than likely, you'll have a downgrade offensively at shortstop next season, can't believe I said that with Zack, but it's entirely true.
  #200  
Old 11-06-17, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
Wolves...if this was an individual message between you and I, fine. But not everyone is on here everyday, and this is a decision that affects the Reds. We can look all over baseball and find similar head-scratching contracts for players. Now personally, I agree with you, this would not be a good decision for the Reds, and if Zack wants that kind of money, he needs to look elsewhere.

Is there a number that you'd be comfortable with resigning Cozart, or are you ready to just wash your hands of him completely?
I'd be perfectly fine with bringing him back for less than $3 million on a one year deal, with the understanding that he is a back up/mentor for some of the younger infield guys. But I'd prefer to move on from him completely.
  #201  
Old 11-06-17, 11:04 AM
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Indiandad seems to really really really like Winker.
  #202  
Old 11-06-17, 02:37 PM
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Not surprising, the Reds are not making a qualifying offer to Cozart, so he becomes a free agent. According to Lance McCallister's blog, there is web site that tracks potential homes for free agents, and prospective contracts.
MLBtraderumors.com is projecting the San Diego Padres as potentially offering Cozart a 3 year, $42 million dollar contract. If that's the case, good luck Zack.
  #203  
Old 11-06-17, 02:42 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I like Winker, but just to caution, you've seen Winker in a very, very small sample size. He has been a high OPS guy, even his days in the minors. But let's not make any promises that he's going to add alot to our offense. More than likely, you'll have a downgrade offensively at shortstop next season, can't believe I said that with Zack, but it's entirely true.
And we've seen an extremely large sample size of Hamilton. It doesn't take a lot to out produce Billy offensively. Winker just needs to make hard contact and he will be leaps and bounds better than Billy.

Everything we know about Winker suggest he does just that.
  #204  
Old 11-06-17, 02:45 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Indiandad seems to really really really like Winker.
What's not to like? Comparing him to Billy is no comparison at all.

Even if Winker is just average, he is better than Billy offensively.

The money Billy will get this year could/would/should be spent on pitching.
  #205  
Old 11-06-17, 02:50 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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I'd be ok with 3 years/24M for Cozart. I'd offer 4M signing bonus, 10M in 2018, 6M in 2019 and 4M 2020. This may appeal to Zack as he gets most of his money upfront. It also makes him more valuable as a trade piece after 2018 especially if he plays well. Even if you trade him in July 2018 you are simply paying cash for someone else's prospect(s).
  #206  
Old 11-06-17, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
And we've seen an extremely large sample size of Hamilton. It doesn't take a lot to out produce Billy offensively. Winker just needs to make hard contact and he will be leaps and bounds better than Billy.

Everything we know about Winker suggest he does just that.
Duly noted. I don't see a senario where Winker replaces Hamilton, or Schebler replaces Hamilton, at least not on an everyday basis.
  #207  
Old 11-06-17, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
I'd be ok with 3 years/24M for Cozart. I'd offer 4M signing bonus, 10M in 2018, 6M in 2019 and 4M 2020. This may appeal to Zack as he gets most of his money upfront. It also makes him more valuable as a trade piece after 2018 especially if he plays well. Even if you trade him in July 2018 you are simply paying cash for someone else's prospect(s).
I'd be ok with that as well, but keep in mind the Reds spent alot of signing bonus money on a couple of young cuban shortstops. I don't know that the bridge to them is 3 years away.
  #208  
Old 11-06-17, 03:48 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
BINGO, now this is what I can agree with. The Reds are perfectly fine offensively.
The Reds are average offensively.... They are far from fine.
If their young pitchers are merely average next year then they had better beef up the lineup. Hamilton and Peraza are glaring weaknesses offensively.

Now, if they beef up the lineup by simply paring out the dead weight (Hamilton and Peraza) and replacing them with even average bats and the pitching is above average next year then this team might compete next year.
  #209  
Old 11-06-17, 04:22 PM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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That's about right. The Reds were 8th in the NL in runs scored, 8th in BA, 8th in OBP, 7th in slugging, 6th in OPS.
Out of 15 teams, yeah that ranks as pretty average.
  #210  
Old 11-06-17, 05:06 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by Monclova Steve View Post
That's about right. The Reds were 8th in the NL in runs scored, 8th in BA, 8th in OBP, 7th in slugging, 6th in OPS.
Out of 15 teams, yeah that ranks as pretty average.
exactly. The Reds can't afford to have 25% of their everyday 8 unable to get on base or drive in runs.
 

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