Vamps V2S State Wide Power Ratings 11-2-09

[vamp2syd]

Wow, the regular season is already over....... , where did it go......these are the final regular season power ratings, this year the V2S had a 84.2% Accuracy rate projecting games across the state, this is the highest accuracy rate for this system over the years......Keep an eye out for the V2S-Cal-Prep/Massey challenge thread that will pit my system against these super computers as well as some others to see who has the most accurate playoff percentage. This will be the 5th year that I will be doing this, the V2S system has won the last 2 years and 3 of the last 4 with Massey winning the other time.......The V2S playoff projections will be listed in that thread.....

Last weeks Accuracy rate: 86.2%
For the season: 84.2%

Top 40 ALL DIVISIONS

rank out of 616 teams in my power ratings/rating/league/division/region

1 St. Ignatius 99.48 z-ind d1 R1
2 Moeller 96 gcl-s d1 R4
3 Dublin Coffman 95 occ-cen d1 R3
4 St. Xavier 94.04 gcl-s d1 R4
5 Hilliard Davidson 90.71111111 occ-cen d1 R3
6 Youngstown Mooney 90.32 svc d3 R9
7 Elder 90.22222222 gcl-s d1 R4
8 Middletown 90.2 gmc d1 R4
9 Colerain 90.04 gmc d1 R4
10 Pickerington Central 89.96 occ-o d1 R3
11 Anderson 89.96 favc-b d1 R4
12 Solon 88.88 neoc-v d1 R1
13 Lakota West 87.08 gmc d1 R4
14 Centerville 85.96 gwoc-c d1 R4
15 Westerville South 85.2 occ-car d1 R3
16 Glenville Academic 85.04 cmssl d1 R1
17 Winton Woods 84.88 favc-b d2 R8
18 Louisville 84.52 nbc d2 R7
19 Alter 84.2 gcl-n d4 R16
20 Columbus DeSales 82.92 ccl d3 R10

21 Massillon-Washington 82.48 z-ind d1 R2
22 Glen Oak 82.24 fed d1 R2
23 Hoover 81.96 fed d1 R2
24 Logan 81.92 seoal d2 R7
25 Mayfield 81.88 neoc-v d1 R1
26 Boardman 81.52 fed d1 R1
27 McKinley 81.48 fed d1 R2
28 Dover 81.4 ecol d3 R11
29 Wayne 81.36 gwoc-c d1 R4
30 Lake Catholic 81.16 ncl-b d2 R5
31 Twinsburg 80.64 neoc-l d1 R2
32 Northmont 80.56 gwoc-c d1 R4
33 Toledo Whitmer 80.28 tcal d1 R2
34 Genoa Area 80.12 sll d4 R14
35 Delphos St. Johns 79.8 mac d6 R22
36 Mentor 79.6 lel-l d1 R1
37 Col Watterson 79.44 ccl d3 R10
38 Lancaster 79.16 occ-o d1 R3
39 Trotwood 79.04 gwoc-n d2 R8
40 Ursuline 78.62222222 svc d5 R17

D2 TOP 20

17 Winton Woods 84.88 favc-b d2
18 Louisville 84.52 nbc d2
24 Logan 81.92 seoal d2
30 Lake Catholic 81.16 ncl-b d2
39 Trotwood 79.04 gwoc-n d2
41 Toledo Central Catholic 78.52 tcal d2
45 Toledo St.Francis DeSales 77.32 tcal d2
50 Canfield 76.48 aac-r d2
50 Turpin 76.48 favc-c d2
57 New Philadelphia 75.68 ecol d2
60 Zanesville 75.28 z-ind d2
61 Avon Lake 74.8 swc d2
63 Ashland 74.48 ocdc d2
67 Uniontown Lake 74.12 fed d2
69 Walsh-Jesuit 74 z-ind d2
78 Tecumseh 73.16 cbc-k d2
84 West Geauga 72.88 cvc d2
85 Aurora 72.8 cvc d2
86 Howland 72.8 aac-r d2
92 Maple Heights 71.56 lel-l d2

D3 top 20

6 Youngstown Mooney 90.32 svc d3 R9
20 Columbus DeSales 82.92 ccl d3 R10
28 Dover 81.4 ecol d3 R11
37 Col Watterson 79.44 ccl d3 R10
52 Steubenville 76.36 z-ind d3 R11
68 Lima Shawnee 74.04 wbl d3 R10
69 Hoban 74 ncl-b d3 R9
75 Canal Fulton Northwest 73.56 nbc d3 R11
77 Padua Franciscan 73.4 ncl-b d3 R9
80 St.Vincent-St.Mary 73.04 z-ind d3 R9
87 Poland Seminary 72.76 aac-r d3 R9
99 Marlington 70.64 nbc d3 R11
100 Hubbard 70.6 aac-w d3 R9
102 Napoleon 70.4 gbc d3 R10
104 Granville 70.12 msl-oh d3 R11
114 Wyoming 68.36 chl d3 R12
125 Buchtel 67.72 acs d3 R9
136 Benedictine 66.8 z-ind d3 R9
138 Bellefontaine 66.4 cbc-k d3 R10
158 Minerva 65.24 nbc d3 R11

D4 top 20

19 Alter 84.2 gcl-n d4 R16
34 Genoa Area 80.12 sll d4 R14
58 Chagrin Falls 75.56 cvc d4 R13
76 Kenton 73.52 wbl d4 R16
83 Amanda-Clearcreek 73 msl-b d4 R15
88 Clinton Massie 72.6 scol d4 R16
96 Orrville 70.96 ocdc d4 R14
103 Clear Fork 70.16 ocdc d4 R14
111 Ironton 68.88 seoal d4 R15
129 Coshocton 67.44 ecol d4 R15
133 Ottawa Glandorf 66.92 wbl d4 R14
139 Thurgood Marshall 66.36 dcl d4 R16
147 Girard 66.12 aac-b d4 R13
154 Jonathan Alder 65.48 z-ind d4 R16
155 Martins Ferry 65.44 b8c d4 R13
157 Eastwood 65.32 sll d4 R14
163 Manchester 64.92 pac-7 d4 R13
170 Heath 64.56 msl-oh d4 R15
187 Valley View 63.28 swbl-s d4 R16
196 Perry-Perry 62.48 cvc d4 R13

D5 top 20

40 Ursuline 78.62222222 svc d5 R17
43 Coldwater 78.08 mac d5 R20
71 Patrick Henry 73.88 nwoal d5 R18
98 Anna 70.76 mac d5 R20
127 St. Henry 67.64 mac d5 R20
130 Cuyahoga Heights 67.36 cvc-m d5 R17
139 Hamilton Badin 66.36 gcl-c d5 R20
161 Fredricktown 65 mbc d5 R19
172 Liberty Union 64.44 msl-c d5 R19
174 Wheelersburg 64.36 soc d5 R19
185 West Jefferson 63.88 msl-c d5 R20
193 Columbus Academy 62.76 msl-oh d5 R20
201 North Union 62.08 moac-r d5 R20
203 Trinity 61.96 ncl-w d5 R17
204 Villa Angela-St. Joseph 61.92 ncl-w d5 R17
206 Lima Central Catholic 61.8 nwc d5 R18
207 Tinora 61.76 grmc d5 R18
219 Col-Bishop Ready 60.4 ccl d5 R20
234 Versailles 58.8 mac d5 R20
241 Minford 58.4 soc d5 R19

If your team is not listed and you would like to know their power rating, just let me know and it would help if you gave me the region they are in!!!!

Thanks!

[techhawk101]

Vamps, you do a great job and I'm sure that everyone on Yappi appreciates your efforts and the tremendous time that you put into this, but don't you think you should beat these National Pollsters every year? They have no local knowledge of the teams, injuries, rivalries, momentum etc. Again, congratulations on another great year.

[Jepper74]

Originally Posted by techhawk101

don't you think you should beat these National Pollsters every year? They have no local knowledge of the teams, injuries, rivalries, momentum etc.

In theory that'd be true if his power ratings included any of that information.... but, as far as I know, his ratings are only based on the numbers - which is what the national pollsters do as well.

[vamp2syd]

Originally Posted by techhawk101

Vamps, you do a great job and I'm sure that everyone on Yappi appreciates your efforts and the tremendous time that you put into this, but don't you think you should beat these National Pollsters every year? They have no local knowledge of the teams, injuries, rivalries, momentum etc. Again, congratulations on another great year.

I have no influence what so ever on my power ratings, it is all a mathematical formula that I created.....I do though, would have a better knowledge of how well my system does in projecting games as a national super computer of those who program it who may only know a few teams from the state of Ohio.....

[Eezy as 123]

Vamp', do you have D6?

[vamp2syd]

Originally Posted by Eezy as 123

Vamp', do you have D6?

I do not keep track of all D6 teams at this time, I expand about 50 teams a year.....these are the D6 teams that I keep full power ratings for, the rest of the D6 teams I keep partial track off up to the point they no longer play anyone in my power rating.....I can generate any teams power rating if needed......I will list the D6 teams I do have in alphabetical order......

152 Ada 65.56 nwc d6 R22
349 Ansonia 50.76 ccc d6 R24
609 Arcadia 10.08 bvc d6 R22
583 Arcanum 22.72 ccc d6 R24
400 Arlington 46.88 bvc d6 R22
612 Bradford 6.64 ccc d6 R24
604 Cedarville 14 ohc d6 R24
614 Cincinnati Christian 3.6 mvc d6 R24
505 Cincinnati Country Day 35.76 mvc d6 R24
389 Cory-Rawson 47.56 bvc d6 R22
423 Covington 44.36 ccc d6 R24
267 Dalton 57.04 wcal d6 R21
518 Danville 32.64 mbc d6 R23
35 Delphos St. Johns 79.8 mac d6 R22
524 Fisher Catholic 31.8 msl-c d6 R23
344 Ft. Loramie 50.92 mbc d6 R24
485 Ft. Recovery 37.92 mac d6 R24
546 Hardin Northern 29.08 bvc d6 R22
514 Harvest Prep 33.04 msl-c d6 R23
265 Hopewell-Loudon 57.2 mal d6 R21
605 Jefferson 12.88 mbc d6 R24
310 Leipsic 54.24 bvc d6 R22
379 Lockland 48.24 mvc d6 R24
317 Malvern 54 ivc d6 R23
188 Marion Local 63.08 mac d6 R24
358 McComb 50.04 bvc d6 R22
613 Millersport 6.12 msl-c d6 R23
516 Minster 32.92 mac d6 R24
572 Mississinawa Valley 24.24 ccc d6 R24
315 Mogadore 54.04 ptc-c d6 R21
611 National Trail 6.72 ccc d6 R24
362 New Bremen 49.6 mac d6 R24
603 New Miami 14.72 mvc d6 R24
229 Newark Catholic 59.52 msl-oh d6 R23
429 Pandora-Gilboa 43.88 bvc d6 R22
597 Ponitz 16.64 dcl d6 R24
586 Ridgedale 22.04 moac-b d6 R24
602 Rittman 14.76 wcal d6 R21
231 Sidney Lehman Catholic 59.08 mbc d6 R24
410 Southeastern 45.76 ohc d6 R24
435 Springfield Catholic Central 43.28 ohc d6 R24
553 St. Mary Central Catholic 27.52 sbc d6 R21
387 St. Peter Chanel 47.64444444 ncl-w d6 R21
582 Troy Christian 22.8 mbc d6 R24
570 Van Buren 24.52 bvc d6 R22
615 Vanlue 2.68 bvc d6 R22
247 Warren JFK 57.96 z-ind d6 R21
606 Windham 12.64 ptc-c d6 R21
616 Yellow Springs -6.2 mbc d6 R24

[MoeBeturLojik]

Vamps,
Just curious, can you tell us the basics of how your system works? Is margin of victory considered? Are you ever going to approach OHSAA to suggest changing the Harbin to your system? You should also include the Harbin into your comparison. I compared Harbin to calpreps and Massey last year. Harbin was by far the least accurate, almost 10% less games predicted correctly. That's why Harbin needs to be changed, because it is not very accurate.

[ELKSONE]

If Vamps can get a handle on injuries and some kind of point system for rivarly games, he might just push his average over 90%.

[vamp2syd]

Originally Posted by MoeBeturLojik

Vamps,
Just curious, can you tell us the basics of how your system works? Is margin of victory considered? Are you ever going to approach OHSAA to suggest changing the Harbin to your system? You should also include the Harbin into your comparison. I compared Harbin to calpreps and Massey last year. Harbin was by far the least accurate, almost 10% less games predicted correctly. That's why Harbin needs to be changed, because it is not very accurate.

Their are several things that go into my power ratings and I will not give out my formula, but one of the things is actual point spread in comparison to projected point spread, so yes.....margin of victory is important in my formula, and for this and other reasons, my system should never be used to decide who makes the playoffs.

As for the Harbins, over the years I have made several comments about the Harbins and ways to tweak it for improvements....Just like my system should never be used to determine playoff teams, the Harbins should never be used to project games....it just does not work that way.

[tofer23]

Wow. Colerain finally cracks the top 10 again, and we will be home watching others in the playoffs. THat stinks.

[Warrior78]

Originally Posted by tofer23

Wow. Colerain finally cracks the top 10 again, and we will be home watching others in the playoffs. THat stinks.

Yes, and that doesn't seem fair. On the Monday night coach's show, Coach Minton was stating that the playoffs should be tweaked to the top 32 teams in each division regardless of region. After that's established, then regionalize the teams. He didn't say anything new that others haven't said but he was supportive of Colerain and Northmont being in the playoffs.