The Official 2024 Reds season thread
- Thread starter RazorRamon
- Start date
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This team now has to go 65-47 just to get to 85 wins, which guarantees nothing.
The Dodgers have a chance to stick a virtual fork in the 2024 Reds this weekend.
The Dodgers have a chance to stick a virtual fork in the 2024 Reds this weekend.
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Yeah the hole is quickly becoming way too deep. Nothing right now indicates this group could go 65-47.
Certainly disappointing after the way the team played last year. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong.
- Marte suspension
- long term pre-season injuries to McLain and Friedl
- slow starts by every hitter not named Elly or Steer
- in-season injuries to CES, Friedl
- weird flu bug wipes out various guys
- first slump of Steer's life
- free agent signings all under-perfrom
Starting pitching has been the only consistent strength outside of Elly. Barring a miracle, we'll get em in 2025 I guess.
14Red
Well-known member
The one thing that guaranteed in baseball is you have a game today. Win that game, then worry about tomorrow. As I've said countless times the last few weeks, the one thing that can put you into winning streaks is good starting pitching, which we've been getting. Lodolo is due back next week, so that pushes Martinez out of the rotation. I'll take my chances with Greene, Ashcraft, Abbott, Lodolo and Montas every 5 days and we'll see where we sit. The bats have to eventually come around.
RazorRamon
Well-known member
The Reds would be stupid to rush any players back and need to jettison Candelario, Montas, Martinez before the trade deadline. I’m hoping the CES injury was why he was struggling so bad early on. I also hope Bell gets cut. Lodolo and McClain may be to fragile to have productive careers.
Next year:
Friedl CF
McClain 2B
Elly SS
Steer LF
Marte 3B
Fraley RF
CES 1B
Stephenson C
Rotation
Greene
Abbott
Ashcraft
Lowder
Lodolo?
Petty or Phillips
Next year:
Friedl CF
McClain 2B
Elly SS
Steer LF
Marte 3B
Fraley RF
CES 1B
Stephenson C
Rotation
Greene
Abbott
Ashcraft
Lowder
Lodolo?
Petty or Phillips
Omega
Well-known member
A shamelessly borrowed post from RedsZone member Kc61. His words paint a statistical picture of where Cincinnati stands one third of the way through the season:
"Reds in tailspin now 20-30 after an 11-9 start. Last 30 games 9-21. Reds last in NL Central, 8.5 games out of first and 2.5 games out of fourth. Reds are an equal 10-15 home and road. Reds pythag is -11 (Pythag record 24-26). Run differential not severe because so many losses are of 1-run variety (Reds 1-11 in one-run games). Reds 12-12 against sub-.500 teams, but 8-18 against clubs at .500 or better.
The major culprit is offense which collapsed due to injury, illness and slumps. Season’s team BA is .215, worst in MLB. Team’s OPS is .649, third from MLB’s worst. Some of the numbers that perhaps show the issues: Reds hitters are third highest in K%, 25.6%; Reds hitters are fifth in Soft% 18.3%; Reds Pull% leads MLB 43.8%; and fourth lowest Oppo % at 22.6%. The picture is a group of hitters that don’t use the whole field, swing and miss, and make weak contact.
Through all this, however, Reds remain much improved in pitching, particularly SP. Reds team ERA of 3.96 is in top half of MLB, and almost a full run per nine better than 2023 (4.83). The ERA improvement on the starting side is remarkable, Reds at 3.92 currently was 5.43 last season. Notably league-wide ERA is 3.98 way down from 4.33 last season, but Reds pitching improvement is still striking.
Bullpen ERA of 4.03 is slightly better than last year, but some late inning guys have been spotty - Cruz ERA 4.57, Diaz 6.27, Sims 4.70. But x-ERA for Cruz and Diaz reflect some bad luck, Cruz 2.70 and Diaz 3.95. Cruz with 1.61 FIP. Cruz averaging 17.03 strikeouts per nine, quite a stat. Reds with only 8 saves this season, but only 3 blown saves, fewest save opportunities in MLB at 11 (leading Save Opp teams with 26).
Reds defensive metrics - Fangraphs Def 24th, OAA 23rd, DRS 22nd. Not good, but not horrendous, especially with so many starters missing time due to injury. EDLC at short now leads Reds in Def with 2.1, his OAA is 0, DRS -3. Overall, seems to be coming along defensively at short."
"Reds in tailspin now 20-30 after an 11-9 start. Last 30 games 9-21. Reds last in NL Central, 8.5 games out of first and 2.5 games out of fourth. Reds are an equal 10-15 home and road. Reds pythag is -11 (Pythag record 24-26). Run differential not severe because so many losses are of 1-run variety (Reds 1-11 in one-run games). Reds 12-12 against sub-.500 teams, but 8-18 against clubs at .500 or better.
The major culprit is offense which collapsed due to injury, illness and slumps. Season’s team BA is .215, worst in MLB. Team’s OPS is .649, third from MLB’s worst. Some of the numbers that perhaps show the issues: Reds hitters are third highest in K%, 25.6%; Reds hitters are fifth in Soft% 18.3%; Reds Pull% leads MLB 43.8%; and fourth lowest Oppo % at 22.6%. The picture is a group of hitters that don’t use the whole field, swing and miss, and make weak contact.
Through all this, however, Reds remain much improved in pitching, particularly SP. Reds team ERA of 3.96 is in top half of MLB, and almost a full run per nine better than 2023 (4.83). The ERA improvement on the starting side is remarkable, Reds at 3.92 currently was 5.43 last season. Notably league-wide ERA is 3.98 way down from 4.33 last season, but Reds pitching improvement is still striking.
Bullpen ERA of 4.03 is slightly better than last year, but some late inning guys have been spotty - Cruz ERA 4.57, Diaz 6.27, Sims 4.70. But x-ERA for Cruz and Diaz reflect some bad luck, Cruz 2.70 and Diaz 3.95. Cruz with 1.61 FIP. Cruz averaging 17.03 strikeouts per nine, quite a stat. Reds with only 8 saves this season, but only 3 blown saves, fewest save opportunities in MLB at 11 (leading Save Opp teams with 26).
Reds defensive metrics - Fangraphs Def 24th, OAA 23rd, DRS 22nd. Not good, but not horrendous, especially with so many starters missing time due to injury. EDLC at short now leads Reds in Def with 2.1, his OAA is 0, DRS -3. Overall, seems to be coming along defensively at short."
Some Reds Stats after 50 games, 2024
Reds in tailspin now 20-30 after an 11-9 start. Last 30 games 9-21. Reds last in NL Central, 8.5 games out of first and 2.5 games out of fourth. Reds are an equal 10-15 home and road. Reds pythag is -11 (Pythag record 24-26). Run differential not severe because so many losses are of 1-run...
www.redszone.com